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Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction: Dallas favored to win MNF Week 11, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions for NFL Monday.
The Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys will meet in Week 11 of the NFL season at Allegiant Stadium on Monday, starting at 8:15PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Cowboys as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Raiders game.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Cowboys vs. Raiders prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Cowboys-Raiders predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Cowboys and Raiders 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Cowboys a 62% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 25-22.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Cowboys and Raiders each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.
Cowboys vs. Raiders odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cowboys | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -196 | +170 |
| Total | o48.5 (-105) | u48.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Raiders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raiders +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Raiders | +170 |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Raiders to win.
Cowboys vs. Raiders TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Raiders?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime TD in Cowboys vs. Raiders.
Our projections give Williams a 57.0% chance of scoring a TD at Allegiant Stadium, while the running back is a 14.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 57.0% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 42.1% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 37.2% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 31.9% |
| KaVontae Turpin (WR) | 14.2% |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 52.9% |
| Brock Bowers (TE) | 44.7% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 30.2% |
| Tyler Lockett (WR) | 19.2% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 18.4% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (RB) | 14.3% |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR) | 9.2% |
| George Pickens (WR) | 7.9% |
| Jake Ferguson (TE) | 6.5% |
| KaVontae Turpin (WR) | 2.6% |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty (RB) | 13.2% |
| Brock Bowers (TE) | 10.4% |
| Tre Tucker (WR) | 6.3% |
| Tyler Lockett (WR) | 3.7% |
| Michael Mayer (TE) | 3.6% |
Cowboys vs Raiders player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Raiders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 266 passing yards, while the Raiders' Geno Smith is expected to throw for 235 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 266 |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 235 |
Cowboys rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 79 |
| Dak Prescott | 13 |
| Malik Davis | 7 |
Raiders rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 72 |
| Geno Smith | 13 |
| Raheem Mostert | 13 |
Cowboys receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 89 |
| George Pickens | 70 |
| Jake Ferguson | 42 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 20 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 19 |
Raiders receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 71 |
| Tre Tucker | 51 |
| Tyler Lockett | 35 |
| Michael Mayer | 30 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 22 |
Cowboys vs. Raiders game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 11 action between the Raiders and Cowboys at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Monday, November 17, 2025
- Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Cowboys, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 11 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Raiders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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