Cowboys vs. Lions prediction: Detroit favored to win ‘TNF’ Week 14, 2025

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NFL Week 14 action continues on Thursday at 8:15PM ET as the Dallas Cowboys lock horns with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Cowboys vs. Lions game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Cowboys vs. Lions prediction: Who will win ‘Thursday Night Football’?

Since our Cowboys-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Cowboys and Lions 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 61% chance of beating the Cowboys in Week 14 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 29-25.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Cowboys and Lions each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 14 straight up picks.

Cowboys vs. Lions odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Cowboys	Lions
Spread	+3.5 (-102)	-3.5 (-102)
Moneyline	+160	-186
Total	o55.5 (-110)	u55.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cowboys vs. Lions picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Cowboys +3.5	-102
Moneyline	Cowboys	+160
Total	Under 55.5	-108

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.

Cowboys vs. Lions TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Lions?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Cowboys vs. Lions.

Our projections give Gibbs a 65.3% chance of scoring a TD at Ford Field, while the running back is a 14.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	52.0%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	43.4%
George Pickens (WR)	42.1%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	34.2%
KaVontae Turpin (WR)	13.7%

Detroit Lions

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	65.3%
David Montgomery (RB)	46.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	43.3%
Jameson Williams (WR)	39.4%
Isaac TeSlaa (WR)	21.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

Player	First TD Probability
Javonte Williams (RB)	10.8%
CeeDee Lamb (WR)	8.4%
George Pickens (WR)	8.0%
Jake Ferguson (TE)	6.2%
KaVontae Turpin (WR)	2.2%

Detroit Lions

Player	First TD Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)	14.9%
David Montgomery (RB)	8.8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)	8.0%
Jameson Williams (WR)	7.1%
Isaac TeSlaa (WR)	3.4%

Cowboys vs Lions player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 14 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 281 passing yards, while the Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for 258 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Dak Prescott (DAL)	281
Jared Goff (DET)	258

Cowboys rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Javonte Williams	71
Malik Davis	14
Dak Prescott	12

Lions rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs	88
David Montgomery	40
Jameson Williams	5

Cowboys receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
CeeDee Lamb	89
George Pickens	87
Jake Ferguson	42
KaVontae Turpin	20
Ryan Flournoy	19

Lions receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown	71
Jameson Williams	66
Jahmyr Gibbs	38
Isaac TeSlaa	26
Ross Dwelley	19

Cowboys vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 14 game between the Lions and Cowboys at Ford Field is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
• Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Ford Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Cowboys in Week 14 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cowboys vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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