Portugal vs. Croatia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 32]
Get Portugal vs Croatia predictions for World Cup 2026 Thursday.
World Cup 2026 action continues on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET as Croatia takes on Portugal in the round of 32 at BMO Field.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts Portugal as the most likely winner of the Portugal vs. Croatia game.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Portugal vs. Croatia prediction: Who will win and advance to the Round of 16?
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 57.1% chance of Portugal winning, a 20.3% chance for Croatia, and a 22.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 54.2% chance of going over, with a 53.6% likelihood that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, Portugal holds a 30.7% probability to win without conceding, with Croatia at 10.0%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Portugal to win or draw at 79.7%.
A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.
Croatia vs. Portugal odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Portugal | Croatia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -145 | +460 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -135 | +116 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Portugal vs. Croatia picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Croatia @ +460 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +116 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: Croatia @ +725 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Portugal or Croatia @ -360 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +120 via DraftKings
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Croatia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge provided on Croatia's odds provide the best value right now.
Portugal vs. Croatia: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-1 Croatia | 10.7% |
| Portugal 1-0 Croatia | 10.6% |
| Portugal 2-1 Croatia | 9.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.6% chance of both Portugal and Croatia finding the net and a 46.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Portugal vs. Croatia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Portugal-Croatia:
Portugal
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 37.5% probability
- Joao Felix: 22.1% probability
- Bruno Fernandes: 20.5% probability
- Pedro Neto: 16.6% probability
- Joao Neves: 10.3% probability
Croatia
- Ante Budimir: 17.6% probability
- Nikola Vlasic: 11.6% probability
- Martin Baturina: 10.7% probability
- Ivan Perisic: 9.4% probability
- Luka Modric: 9.1% probability
Portugal vs. Croatia game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's FIFA World Cup matchup between Portugal and Croatia at BMO Field is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portugal vs. Croatia
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: BMO Field
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Portugal has a 57.1% win probability on Thursday, Croatia has a 20.3% win probability, and there is a 22.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
