Commanders vs Raiders Odds: Dimers Model Updates After Jayden Daniels Ruled Out for Week 3

The Washington Commanders will be without second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels in their NFL Week 3 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, a major development that has shaken up the betting markets and the Dimers.com predictive model.

Daniels, who sprained his knee during last week’s Thursday Night Football loss to the Green Bay Packers, was officially ruled out Friday by head coach Dan Quinn.

Veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota will make his first start since 2022, stepping in against Las Vegas.

To see how this shakes up this week's NFL Best Bets and fantasy football player projections, let's look at the latest updates from the Dimers model.

Betting Market Movement: Commanders vs Raiders Odds

Before Daniels was ruled out, Washington entered Week 3 as high as -3.5 favorites.

Prior to the injury, Dimers' predictions for this game were:

• Commanders 63.0% win probability

• Commanders 56.5% probability to cover the spread

• 55.6% probability of Over 43.5 points

After the injury update, sportsbooks have actually lengthened Washington’s odds, moving from -130 on the moneyline to -154, signaling minimal expectations of a major hit with Mariota at the helm, likely due to the level of opponent in the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Dimers model is largely in agreement, with little change in our full Commanders vs. Raiders game predictions.

Marcus Mariota Player Projections

Mariota's last start came in 2022 for the Falcons, while he appeared in three games with Washington last year, throwing 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and rushing for a touchdown.

According to the Dimers model, Mariota is projected for 19.3 fantasy points, with:

• 19.7 Completions

• 220.2 Passing Yards

• 33.6 Rushing Yards

• 24.8% Anytime Touchdown probability

Mariota’s dual-threat skillset gives the Commanders a fighting chance, though there is a downgrade from Jayden Daniels despite the sportsbooks odds holding relatively steady.

Commanders vs Raiders Player Projections

The biggest changes in projections following Daniels’ injury came for Washington’s top playmakers:

Before Daniels’ Injury:

• Deebo Samuel: 13.6 PPR | 50.4 rec yards | 10.9 rush yards | 34.1% TD

• Terry McLaurin: 13.5 PPR | 60.7 rec yards | 4.6 receptions | 31.6% TD

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12.1 PPR | 60.0 rush yards | 8.5 rec yards | 45.6% TD

• Zach Ertz: 9.0 PPR | 36.2 rec yards | 3.5 receptions | 25.9% TD

After Daniels’ Injury:

• Samuel: 13.3 PPR | 50.7 rec yards | 8.9 rush yards | 33.1% TD

• McLaurin: 12.1 PPR | 53.8 rec yards | 4 receptions | 32.2% TD

• Croskey-Merritt: 12.1 PPR | 58.5 rush yards | 10.7 rec yards | 42.5% TD

• Ertz: 9.1 PPR | 37.2 rec yards | 3.6 receptions | 24.9% TD

Takeaways

📉 Biggest loser: Terry McLaurin’s target share dips under Mariota.

📈 Steady: Croskey-Merritt remains a focal point of the ground game, despite a dip in TD probability.

How will Marcus Mariota perform in relief of Jayden Daniels in Week 3?

Commanders vs Raiders Prediction and Best Bet

• Best Bet: Washington Commanders ML

• Odds: -154 Caesars Sportsbook

• Dimers probabililty: 63.0%

• Edge: 2.5%

The Dimers NFL predictions model suggests Washington’s offense may be more conservative with Mariota, lowering the ceiling for stars like McLaurin and Samuel while keeping Croskey-Merritt involved on the ground, but still predicts Washington with a strong chance to win at 63.0%.

Fair odds for a Commanders win would be -170 identifying some value, with a slightly smaller edge on Washington at -2.5 as well.

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