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Avalanche vs. Lightning prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [1/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will square off with the Colorado Avalanche, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Avalanche a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Lightning.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Avalanche vs. Lightning matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Avs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Avalanche and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Avalanche a 52% chance of defeating the Lightning.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Avalanche vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Avalanche | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+200) | +1.5 (-245) |
| Moneyline | -115 | -102 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Avalanche vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning +1.5 | -245 |
| Moneyline | Avalanche | -115 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Avalanche vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Avalanche vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Nathan MacKinnon is most likely to score an anytime goal in Avalanche vs. Lightning.
Our projections give MacKinnon a 40.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 40.2% |
| Brock Nelson | 33.9% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 33.1% |
| Martin Necas | 30.3% |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 28.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 38.0% |
| Brayden Point | 32.6% |
| Brandon Hagel | 31.8% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 31.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 19.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 8.2% |
| Brock Nelson | 6.4% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 6.0% |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 5.5% |
| Martin Necas | 5.5% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 7.5% |
| Brayden Point | 6.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 5.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.3% |
Avs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Lightning and Avalanche at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Avalanche, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Avalanche vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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