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Avalanche vs. Wild prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Game 4 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild predictions for NHL Monday.
The Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche will meet in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena on Monday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Avalanche a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Wild Game 4 matchup.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Avalanche vs. Wild matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Avs vs. Wild prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL Playoffs game between the Avalanche and Wild, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Avalanche a 54% chance of beating the Wild in Game 4 of the series.
According to our model, the Wild (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Avalanche | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+185) | +1.5 (-200) |
| Moneyline | -140 | +120 |
| Total | o6.5 (-102) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Avalanche vs. Wild picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Wild +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Wild | +120 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Avalanche vs. Wild player props
Who will score a goal in Avalanche vs. Wild?
According to our model, Kirill Kaprizov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Avalanche vs. Wild.
Our projections give Kaprizov a 36.2% chance of scoring a goal at Grand Casino Arena, while the star is a 7.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 31.8% |
| Martin Necas | 27.4% |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 26.0% |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 23.2% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 23.1% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 36.2% |
| Matt Boldy | 34.5% |
| Ryan Hartman | 23.0% |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 19.0% |
| Quinn Hughes | 17.8% |
First goal scorer predictions
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 6.2% |
| Martin Necas | 5.5% |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 5.0% |
| Cale Makar | 4.3% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 4.3% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 7.3% |
| Matt Boldy | 6.9% |
| Ryan Hartman | 4.3% |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 3.6% |
| Quinn Hughes | 3.5% |
Avs vs. Wild Game 4 updates and essential details
Monday's Game 4 between the Wild and Avalanche in the NHL Playoffs is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Grand Casino Arena
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's annual elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Avalanche and Wild, reached the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Avalanche, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Wild in Monday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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