Avalanche vs. Wild prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Game 4 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]

NHL Playoffs action continues on Monday at 8:00 PM ET as the Colorado Avalanche square off with the Minnesota Wild in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 matchup.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Avs vs. Wild prediction: Who will win Game 4?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Avalanche and Wild, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Avalanche a 56% chance of defeating the Wild in Game 4 of the series.

According to our model, the Wild (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under.

Avalanche vs. Wild Game 4 odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Avalanche	Wild
Puck Line	-1.5 (+170)	+1.5 (-188)
Moneyline	-150	+130
Total	o6.5 (-105)	u6.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Avalanche vs. Wild picks and best bet for Game 4

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Wild +1.5	-188
Moneyline	Wild	+130
Total	Under 6.5	-112

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Avalanche vs. Wild player props

Who will score a goal in Avalanche vs. Wild?

According to our model, Kirill Kaprizov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Avalanche vs. Wild.

Our projections give Kaprizov a 41.6% chance of scoring a goal at Grand Casino Arena, while the star is an 8.1% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	32.6%
Martin Necas	28.8%
Gabriel Landeskog	28.2%
Cale Makar	25.1%
Artturi Lehkonen	24.9%

Minnesota Wild

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Kirill Kaprizov	41.6%
Matt Boldy	30.1%
Ryan Hartman	24.6%
Quinn Hughes	19.5%
Mats Zuccarello	19.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Colorado Avalanche

Player	First Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	5.8%
Gabriel Landeskog	5.7%
Martin Necas	5.5%
Cale Makar	5.0%
Valeri Nichushkin	4.8%

Minnesota Wild

Player	First Goal Probability
Kirill Kaprizov	8.1%
Matt Boldy	6.1%
Ryan Hartman	4.3%
Quinn Hughes	3.4%
Danila Yurov	3.3%

Avs vs. Wild Game 4 updates and essential details

Monday's Game 4 between the Wild and Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Grand Casino Arena

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Avalanche and Wild, made the NHL Playoffs 2026, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Wild in Monday's NHL matchup.

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