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Reds vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [4/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Friday.
The Minnesota Twins will square off with the Cincinnati Reds in MLB action at Target Field on Friday, starting at 8:10 PM ET.
The Twins will have Joe Ryan (2-1, 3.80 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Brandon Williamson (1-1, 5.28 ERA) for the Reds.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Twins as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Twins game.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Twins a 60% chance of defeating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Twins odds [4/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-143) | -1.5 (+122) |
| Moneyline | +145 | -172 |
| Total | o8 (-108) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds +1.5 | -143 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +145 |
| Total | Over 8 | -108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB game between the Twins and Reds at Target Field is scheduled to begin at 8:10 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
- Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10PM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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