Bears vs. Vikings prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are scheduled to meet in Week 11 of the NFL season at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Vikings as the most likely winner of the Bears vs. Vikings game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bears vs. Vikings prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Bears-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bears and Vikings 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Vikings a 59% chance of beating the Bears in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 24-22.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Bears and Vikings each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.

Bears vs. Vikings odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bears	Vikings
Spread	+2.5 (+100)	-2.5 (-120)
Moneyline	+136	-150
Total	o47.5 (-118)	u47.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bears vs. Vikings picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Bears +2.5	+100
Moneyline	Bears	+136
Total	Under 47.5	-102

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 47.5 total points.

Bears vs. Vikings TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bears vs. Vikings?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Justin Jefferson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bears vs. Vikings.

Our projections give Jefferson a 43.3% chance of getting in for six at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the wide receiver is a 9.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

Player	Anytime TD Probability
D'Andre Swift (RB)	40.4%
Rome Odunze (WR)	35.2%
Kyle Monangai (RB)	29.4%
DJ Moore (WR)	25.0%
Colston Loveland (TE)	22.4%

Minnesota Vikings

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Justin Jefferson (WR)	43.3%
Aaron Jones (RB)	38.4%
Jordan Addison (WR)	33.9%
Jordan Mason (RB)	26.0%
T.J. Hockenson (TE)	24.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

Player	First TD Probability
D'Andre Swift (RB)	8.4%
Rome Odunze (WR)	7.1%
Kyle Monangai (RB)	5.7%
DJ Moore (WR)	4.7%
Colston Loveland (TE)	4.1%

Minnesota Vikings

Player	First TD Probability
Justin Jefferson (WR)	9.6%
Aaron Jones (RB)	8.2%
Jordan Addison (WR)	7.0%
Jordan Mason (RB)	5.1%
T.J. Hockenson (TE)	4.7%

Bears vs Vikings player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bears and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bears' Caleb Williams is projected for 227 passing yards. The Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is expected to throw for 228 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Caleb Williams (CHI)	227
J.J. McCarthy (MIN)	228

Bears rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
D'Andre Swift	59
Kyle Monangai	34
Caleb Williams	27

Vikings rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Aaron Jones	58
Jordan Mason	34
J.J. McCarthy	25

Bears receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rome Odunze	59
DJ Moore	44
Colston Loveland	32
Olamide Zaccheaus	27
Luther Burden	26

Vikings receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Justin Jefferson	79
Jordan Addison	52
T.J. Hockenson	31
Jalen Nailor	29
Aaron Jones	22

Bears vs. Vikings game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 11 matchup between the Vikings and Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium

NFL Week 11 betting promos and codes

Make the most of Dimers' Bears vs. Vikings predictions by exploring the two exciting offers below.

DraftKings Sportsbook

Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets win or lose.

Sports betting deal available for Sunday

To make the most of Sunday's big day of sports, headlined by NFL Sunday action, check out details on the latest Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" that unlocks $200 in bonus bets from a $5 bet — win or lose. Don't miss out!

Conclusion

We predict the Vikings, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Bears in Week 11 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bears vs. Vikings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.