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CBB Trade of the Day: Dimers data finds edge in college basketball champion on OG prediction market
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Dimers has partnered with OG, a prediction market where you can trade on this year's college basketball tournament. Here's where our model finds value on Thursday, March 19.
The college basketball tournament is here and the Dimers data is ready to help you maximize your profit in every round this March. Alongside our new prediction market partner OG, our model has flagged a potential edge in the college basketball champion market.
Here’s what the data shows and how you can trade the outcome on OG, the federally regulated prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com.
The Edge at a Glance
| Duke | Michigan | Arizona | Florida | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimers Model | 36% | 28% | 17% | 8% |
| OG Market Price | 22% | 20% | 20% | 11% |
| Edge | 14% | 8% | -3% | -3% |
Our top four projected winners of the college basketball tournament are the same as the top four traded teams on OG, but sharp-eyed users will notice the biggest discrepancy on the favorite, Duke.
What the Data Says
The Dimers model gives Duke a 36% probability of winning this year's Men's college basketball tournament.
Meanwhile, the current OG market is pricing Duke at 22%, presenting a 14-percentage-point gap that suggests the market may be undervaluing Duke relative to what our model projects.
You'll also see a discrepancy on Michigan at 8%, so still a potential value but at a lower percentage, and negative edges on Florida and Arizona, suggesting the public is overvaluing those teams in the long run.
In prediction market terms: if you believe the Dimers model is closer to the true probability than the current market price, that gap is where potential value may exist.
You can trade a contract on Duke to win the championship directly on OG.
Example Trade Breakdown
Here’s how a Duke championship contract might look on OG:
| Contract cost | $10.00 |
| Payout if correct | $42.00 |
| Maximum loss | $10.00 |
| Implied market probability | 22% (OG market price) |
| Dimers model probability | 34% |
⚠️ Fees may apply. OG may charge trading fees that affect your net payout. Always check the full contract details on OG before placing a trade. Your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every order.
How to Trade This on OG
If you’re already signed up, here’s the straightforward workflow:
Open OG and search for the college basketball champion market
Select Duke as your champion
Review the contract price, potential payout, and maximum loss — all displayed upfront.
Enter your trade amount and confirm. You can also close your position early at the prevailing market price before the game settles.
If Duke wins the championship and your trade settles in the money, your payout is credited to your account.
Not yet on OG? Sign up via our link → dime.rs/og
We may earn a commission when you sign up through our link.
Learn more about OG's tournament bonus offer.
Why This Approach
You’re not following a tip. You’re comparing two independent data points - a quantitative model output and a live market price - and deciding whether the gap is significant enough to act on. That’s what informed trading looks like.
OG is not a sportsbook. It’s a federally regulated financial exchange operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. You trade against the market, not a house. There is no user limiting; winning is encouraged.
What is OG?
OG is a prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com and operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) - a CFTC-regulated exchange. That means it operates under the same federal regulatory framework that governs futures markets, not under state-by-state sportsbook licensing.
Instead of betting against a house, you buy and sell event contracts. Each contract’s price directly reflects the market’s implied probability that an event will occur, so everything is expressed as a percentage, not traditional odds. No conversion, no mental math.
A few things that make OG different:
No user limiting: sharp traders and high-volume users won’t be restricted or banned for winning. You trade against the market.
Transparent pricing: your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every trade.
Wide market coverage: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and more. Includes moneyline, spread, total, player props, and parlays.
Available to eligible users across most of the United States: see og.com for state-by-state details.
Availability by State
OG is available to eligible users across most of the United States.
New York and Arizona residents cannot trade on any markets. Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois residents cannot trade on sports contracts but may trade other categories.
Visit og.com for the full list of eligible states.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading involves risk of loss. Identifying a probability edge does not guarantee a winning trade — the event outcome is always uncertain and you may lose the full amount of your contract. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Predictions are event contracts that are derivatives products offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Terms apply. Visit og.com for full details.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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