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Panthers vs. Falcons prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win in NFL Week 11, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Atlanta Falcons will square off with the Carolina Panthers in NFL Week 11 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Falcons as the most likely winner of the Panthers vs. Falcons game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Panthers vs. Falcons prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Panthers-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Panthers and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Falcons a 63% chance of beating the Panthers in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 22-19.
According to our model, the Panthers (+4.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 41.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 11 straight up picks.
Panthers vs. Falcons odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Panthers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +190 | -210 |
| Total | o41.5 (-118) | u41.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Panthers vs. Falcons picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Panthers +4.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Panthers | +190 |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -118 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Panthers +4.5 at the spread.
Panthers vs. Falcons TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Panthers vs. Falcons?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Panthers vs. Falcons.
Our projections give Robinson a 48.7% chance of scoring a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the running back is a 13.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Carolina Panthers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle (RB) | 48.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (WR) | 30.1% |
| Xavier Legette (WR) | 20.1% |
| Jalen Coker (WR) | 18.3% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE) | 14.9% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 48.7% |
| Drake London (WR) | 43.0% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 39.3% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 23.4% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 20.9% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Carolina Panthers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle (RB) | 12.7% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (WR) | 6.9% |
| Xavier Legette (WR) | 4.4% |
| Jalen Coker (WR) | 3.9% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE) | 3.1% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 13.4% |
| Drake London (WR) | 11.3% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 10.0% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 5.4% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 4.7% |
Panthers vs Falcons player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Panthers and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 11 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Panthers' Bryce Young is projected to have a quiet game with 181 passing yards. The Falcons' Michael Penix is expected to throw for 229 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 181 |
| Michael Penix (ATL) | 229 |
Panthers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 85 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 |
| Bryce Young | 14 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 79 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 37 |
| Michael Penix | 10 |
Panthers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 61 |
| Jalen Coker | 32 |
| Xavier Legette | 25 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 21 |
| Rico Dowdle | 18 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake London | 81 |
| Kyle Pitts | 49 |
| Darnell Mooney | 40 |
| Bijan Robinson | 38 |
| David Sills | 9 |
Panthers vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 11 matchup between the Falcons and Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Falcons, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Panthers in Week 11 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Panthers vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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