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Hurricanes vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/20/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will square off with the Carolina Hurricanes, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Hurricanes.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Hurricanes vs. Lightning matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Canes vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Hurricanes and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 52% chance of beating the Hurricanes.
According to our model, the Hurricanes (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 53% chance of going over.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hurricanes | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-265) | -1.5 (+215) |
| Moneyline | -102 | -114 |
| Total | o5.5 (-105) | u5.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +215 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -114 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 46.0% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 30.3% |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 29.8% |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 26.0% |
| Jackson Blake | 24.6% |
| Logan Stankoven | 20.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 46.0% |
| Brayden Point | 40.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 28.0% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 22.5% |
| Nick Paul | 21.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 6.0% |
| Sebastian Aho | 5.7% |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 5.6% |
| Jackson Blake | 4.3% |
| Logan Stankoven | 3.8% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.6% |
| Brayden Point | 8.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.9% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4.3% |
| Nick Paul | 4.1% |
Canes vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Lightning and Hurricanes at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Hurricanes on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Hurricanes vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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