Hurricanes vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/20/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Carolina Hurricanes, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Hurricanes.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's Hurricanes vs. Lightning matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Canes vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Hurricanes and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 54% chance of defeating the Hurricanes.

According to our model, the Hurricanes (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Hurricanes	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-225)	-1.5 (+205)
Moneyline	+114	-132
Total	o5.5 (-110)	u5.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Hurricanes +1.5	-225
Moneyline	Hurricanes	+114
Total	Over 5.5	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 46.3% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 10.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sebastian Aho	31.1%
Nikolaj Ehlers	27.9%
Andrei Svechnikov	24.8%
Jackson Blake	23.6%
Logan Stankoven	19.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	46.3%
Brayden Point	40.3%
Anthony Cirelli	28.0%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	22.3%
Nick Paul	21.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	First Goal Probability
Sebastian Aho	6.6%
Nikolaj Ehlers	5.8%
Andrei Svechnikov	4.7%
Jackson Blake	4.1%
Logan Stankoven	3.6%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	10.6%
Brayden Point	8.9%
Anthony Cirelli	5.4%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	4.0%
Nick Paul	3.8%

Canes vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Lightning and Hurricanes at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Hurricanes on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Hurricanes vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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