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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Alcaraz vs Zverev predictions for 2026 Australian Open.
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev will lock horns in the semifinals of the 2026 Australian Open on Thursday.
The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.
The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Zverev match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Zverev prediction: Who will win and advance to the final?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Alcaraz-Zverev men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz an 86% chance of defeating Zverev in the 2026 Australian Open.
Additionally, Alcaraz has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 38.5 games has a 67% chance of hitting**, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Zverev |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -588 | +450 |
| First Set | -303 | +240 |
| Game Spread | -5.5 (-108) | +5.5 (-126) |
| Total Games | o38.5 (-118) | u38.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Zverev picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alcaraz | -588 |
| First Set | Zverev | -112 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Carlos Alcaraz to win the first set.
Alcaraz vs. Zverev updates and essential details
The 2026 Australian Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 10:30 PM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev
- Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
- Approx. Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
- Tournament: 2026 Australian Open, Men's Singles
- Round: Semifinals
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat Alexander Zverev at the 2026 Australian Open.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Zverev insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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