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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik prediction, odds, picks for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Alcaraz vs Bublik predictions for ATP Monte-Carlo Masters.
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik are scheduled to meet in the quarterfinals of the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters event on Friday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Bublik match.
This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Bublik prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Alcaraz-Bublik men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Alcaraz a 90% chance of defeating Bublik at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
Additionally, Alcaraz has an 84% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bublik (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 19.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -1429 | +980 |
| First Set | -833 | +500 |
| Game Spread | -5.5 (-136) | +5.5 (+102) |
| Total Games | o19.5 (+105) | u19.5 (-116) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Bublik picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bublik | +980 |
| First Set | Bublik | +105 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 19.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Alcaraz vs. Bublik updates and essential details
The ATP Monte-Carlo Masters match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik is scheduled to commence on Friday at 7:20 AM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik
- Date: Friday, April 10, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:20 AM ET/4:20AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Monte Carlo, Monaco Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarterfinals
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 90% win probability, will likely beat Alexander Bublik at the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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