Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for ATP World Tour Finals 2025

Carlos Alcaraz will face Alex de Minaur in the ATP World Tour Finals Men's Singles 2025 event on Sunday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. de Minaur match.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur prediction: Who will win ATP World Tour Finals 2025 match?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Alcaraz-de Minaur men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Alcaraz an 81% chance of winning against de Minaur at the ATP World Tour Finals 2025 tournament.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 76% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Alcaraz	de Minaur
Moneyline	-455	+410
First Set	-357	+275
Game Spread	+4.5 (-140)	-4.5 (+106)
Total Games	o21.5 (-126)	u21.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	de Minaur	+410
First Set	de Minaur	-108

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur updates and essential details

The ATP World Tour Finals 2025 match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 8:00AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Approx. Time: 8:00AM ET/5:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP World Tour Finals Men's Singles 2025

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Alex de Minaur at the ATP World Tour Finals 2025 tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. de Minaur insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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