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Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Burnley vs Aston Villa predictions for Premier League Sunday.
Burnley and Aston Villa will lock horns in the Premier League at Turf Moor on Sunday, with kickoff at 9:00 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Aston Villa as the most likely winner of the Burnley vs. Aston Villa game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Premier League match between Burnley and Aston Villa, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 17.9% chance of Burnley winning, a 61.1% chance for Aston Villa, and a 21.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of going over, according to our model.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Burnley | Aston Villa | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +550 | -190 | +360 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -138 | +110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley | +550 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -138 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Burnley to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Aston Villa win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| BUR 1-2 AVL | 10% |
| BUR 0-1 AVL | 10% |
| BUR 0-2 AVL | 10% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.5% chance of both Burnley and Aston Villa finding the net and a 45.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Premier League game between Burnley and Aston Villa at Turf Moor is scheduled to start in the United States at 9:00 AM ET.
- Who: Burnley vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
- Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00AM PT
- Venue: Turf Moor
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Burnley has a 17.9% win probability on Sunday, Aston Villa has a 61.1% win probability, and there is a 21.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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