Burnley vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Burnley vs. Aston Villa Premier League match on May 10, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Aston Villa
2
:
2
Turf Moor
Burnley
Turf Moor
BurnleyBUR
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
J. Anthony (8')
Soccer ball icon
Z. Flemming (59')
Soccer ball icon
R. Barkley (42')
Soccer ball icon
O. Watkins (56')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Burnley
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Aston Villa
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Ward-Prowse replaces Florentino
  2. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces J. Anthony
  3. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bailey replaces J. McGinn
  4. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Z. Amdouni replaces Z. Flemming
  5. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: Douglas Luiz replaces R. Barkley
  6. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Bogarde replaces M. Cash
  7. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Laurent replaces L. Ugochukwu
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: L. Digne replaces I. Maatsen
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: E. Buendia replaces V. Lindelof
  10. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: L. Foster replaces H. Mejbri
  11. 60'
    Yellow Card
    Z. Flemming (Burnley) cautioned
  12. 59'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by Z. Flemming, assisted by H. Mejbri
    2-2
  13. 56'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by O. Watkins, assisted by E. Martinez
    2-1
  14. 49'
    Yellow Card
    T. Mings (Aston Villa) cautioned
  15. 42'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by R. Barkley, assisted by J. McGinn
    1-1
  16. 39'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  17. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by J. Anthony
    0-1

Burnley vs. Aston Villa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Burnley vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Turf Moor

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Burnley +550, Aston Villa -190, draw +350
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-135/+115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Burnley: 17.9%
  • Aston Villa: 61.1%
  • Draw: 21.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Burnley 0-2 Aston Villa (10.0%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Burnley vs. Aston Villa? Prediction & correct score

Aston Villa is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.1%.

The most likely correct score is Burnley 0-2 Aston Villa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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