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Sabres vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Game 4 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Montreal Canadiens will take on the Buffalo Sabres in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Bell Centre on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Canadiens a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Sabres Game 4 matchup.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's Sabres vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Sabres vs. Habs prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Sabres and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Canadiens a 54% chance of beating the Sabres in Game 4 of the series.
According to our model, the Sabres (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Game 4 odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sabres | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -140 |
| Total | o6 (-130) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sabres vs. Canadiens picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Sabres +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Sabres | +120 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sabres +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sabres vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Sabres vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sabres vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Thompson a 35.8% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is a 6.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 35.8% |
| Alex Tuch | 29.7% |
| Josh Norris | 26.3% |
| Zach Benson | 26.0% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 20.3% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 34.6% |
| Nick Suzuki | 26.4% |
| Alex Newhook | 25.0% |
| Ivan Demidov | 21.8% |
| Alexandre Texier | 21.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 6.7% |
| Alex Tuch | 5.6% |
| Josh Norris | 5.0% |
| Zach Benson | 4.8% |
| Jack Quinn | 3.8% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 6.5% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.8% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.1% |
| Alexandre Texier | 4.0% |
Sabres vs. Habs Game 4 updates and essential details
Tuesday's Game 4 between the Canadiens and Sabres in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the NHL's postseason elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
Sixteen teams, including the Sabres and Canadiens, made the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Canadiens, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Sabres in Tuesday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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