Bills vs. Steelers prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win in NFL Week 13, 2025

The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 13 action at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 4:25PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Steelers game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Bills vs. Steelers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Since our Bills-Steelers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Steelers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Bills a 62% chance of defeating the Steelers in Week 13 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 23-20.

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Bills and Steelers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 13 straight up picks.

Bills vs. Steelers odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Bills	Steelers
Spread	-3 (-110)	+3 (-105)
Moneyline	-174	+146
Total	o44.5 (-108)	u44.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Bills vs. Steelers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Steelers +3	-105
Moneyline	Bills	-174
Total	Over 44.5	-108

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Steelers +3 at the spread.

Bills vs. Steelers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Steelers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 13, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Steelers.

Our projections give Cook a 47.7% chance of getting in for six at Acrisure Stadium, while the running back is a 10.4% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	47.7%
Josh Allen (QB)	41.5%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	31.4%
Gabe Davis (WR)	21.9%
Dawson Knox (TE)	21.7%

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jaylen Warren (RB)	38.7%
DK Metcalf (WR)	33.5%
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	32.9%
Calvin Austin (WR)	21.0%
Jonnu Smith (TE)	20.2%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
James Cook (RB)	10.4%
Josh Allen (QB)	8.6%
Khalil Shakir (WR)	6.1%
Gabe Davis (WR)	4.0%
Dawson Knox (TE)	3.9%

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	First TD Probability
Jaylen Warren (RB)	8.7%
DK Metcalf (WR)	7.3%
Kenneth Gainwell (RB)	7.1%
Calvin Austin (WR)	4.2%
Jonnu Smith (TE)	4.0%

Bills vs Steelers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Steelers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 13 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 239 passing yards. The Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw for 208 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Josh Allen (BUF)	239
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)	208

Bills rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook	86
Josh Allen	32
Ty Johnson	12

Steelers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jaylen Warren	65
Kenneth Gainwell	32
Kaleb Johnson	5

Bills receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Khalil Shakir	57
Gabe Davis	32
Dawson Knox	30
Keon Coleman	29
Tyrell Shavers	26

Steelers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
DK Metcalf	52
Calvin Austin	33
Pat Freiermuth	23
Kenneth Gainwell	22
Jonnu Smith	21

Bills vs. Steelers game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 13 action between the Steelers and Bills at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Steelers in Week 13 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Steelers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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