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Bills vs. Broncos prediction: Denver favored to win Divisional Round game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos predictions for NFL Saturday.
The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills are scheduled to meet in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday, starting at 4:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Broncos as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Broncos game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bills vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bills-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NFL game between the Bills and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Broncos a 56% chance of beating the Bills. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 23-21.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Bills and Broncos each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 20 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Broncos odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-112) | -1.5 (-104) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -115 |
| Total | o45.5 (-112) | u45.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bills vs. Broncos picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos -1.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Broncos | -115 |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -108 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Broncos to win.
Bills vs. Broncos TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Broncos?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, RJ Harvey is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bills vs. Broncos.
Our projections give Harvey a 51.5% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 12.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 50.6% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 48.7% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 26.1% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 21.8% |
| Brandin Cooks (WR) | 18.6% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 51.5% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 32.0% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 21.8% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 20.5% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 20.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 10.5% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 9.9% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 4.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid (TE) | 3.6% |
| Brandin Cooks (WR) | 3.0% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 12.4% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 6.6% |
| Bo Nix (QB) | 4.2% |
| Troy Franklin (WR) | 3.9% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 3.9% |
Bills vs Broncos player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 20 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 215 passing yards. The Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 222 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 215 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 222 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 83 |
| Josh Allen | 41 |
| Ty Johnson | 11 |
Broncos rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 54 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 27 |
| Bo Nix | 27 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 57 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 38 |
| Brandin Cooks | 34 |
| Keon Coleman | 26 |
| Dawson Knox | 25 |
Broncos receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 59 |
| Pat Bryant | 37 |
| Troy Franklin | 28 |
| Evan Engram | 26 |
| RJ Harvey | 22 |
Bills vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Broncos and Bills at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 4:30 PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET/1:30PM PT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
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Conclusion
We predict the Broncos, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Bills on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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