Bucks vs. Hornets: The best NBA prop bet you can make on Friday, January 2

It's a brand-new year, but the same NBA season rolls on as we get closer and closer to meaningful spring basketball. One team hoping to make its way into the play-in tournament come April is the Milwaukee Bucks, who currently sit 1.5 games outside the 10-seed.

As Milwaukee looks to take advantage of a clash with another team on the outside looking in, the Charlotte Hornets, the sharpest angle on this slate isn’t the final score, but a plus-money NBA player prop that jumps off the page once you dig into the data.

Consistent winning in NBA betting isn’t about guessing who gets hot or simply reading boxscores and trends. It’s about identifying when the numbers are mispriced and backing it with clear data-backed insights.

That’s exactly the case with one specific prop in Bucks vs. Hornets, where the market is offering plus money on a baseline that our projections suggest should be on the other side of even money.

How we found this high-value Bucks vs. Hornets prop

This bet is surfaced directly from the Dimers NBA Player Projections Hub and our best NBA props, where our model simulations flag high-edge opportunities across every game on the slate.

Dimers’ model projects a meaningful edge on this bet alongside favorable matchup data, featuring a sizable gap between the sportsbook odds and the implied odds based on our probability.

According to the projections:

• Probability: 55.8%

• Edge: 16.1%

• Best odds available: +152

When you’re getting plus money on an outcome projected to hit more often than not, that’s exactly the type of inefficiency worth attacking.

Our Bucks vs. Hornets NBA prop target

The Bet: Myles Turner over 2.5 three-pointers (+152)

Bucks offseason acquisition Myles Turner profiles as an ideal three-point prop target in this matchup, and the underlying numbers make the case hard to ignore. Turner is shooting a career-high 5.9 three-point attempts per game in his first season with Milwaukee, knocking them down at a 38.1% rate, the third-highest of his 11-year career.

Charlotte has been one of the most generous defenses in the league when it comes to perimeter shooting in the NBA, especially vs. bigs.

The Hornets are allowing the most three-pointers per game to opposing big men this season 2.1/gm), and that trend hasn’t slowed much recently, ranking third-most over their past 15 games. Even more concerning for Charlotte, opponents are converting 38.8% of their threes, the highest rate in the NBA.

Turner has already shown he can exploit this exact matchup. In three previous games against the Hornets this season, he’s gone 3-for-5, 6-for-8, and 3-for-8 from beyond the arc. Those aren’t low-volume outliers either, as Turner has attempted five or more threes in seven straight games, with eight or more attempts in three of those.

Volume is not a concern here. A significant portion of Turner’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, and his role in the offense consistently gives him the green light to fire the deep ball.

With Dimers projecting 3.0 made threes, a 55.8% hit probability, and plus-money pricing at his standard line, giving us an edge of over 16%, this shapes up as one of the more appealing NBA props on the Friday slate.

When matchup data, recent usage, and projection edge all align, that’s exactly the profile bettors should be looking to attack.

How to ladder this Myles Turner Prop

Here's an example of how to tackle a three-point prop ladder on Myles Turner. Based on this staggered wager, hitting just the baseline of 3+ will guarantee a small profit, even if the other legs don't hit.

These dollar amounts are for reference only as an example of how to stagger a wager across the full ladder - please remember to gamble responsibly and bet only what suits your strategy.

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