2026 NBA Finals: Advanced data model identifies Championship value bets and best odds

After the Dimers.com prediction models nailed some impressive futures bets in MLB and WNBA - and within our hot golf model - our advanced long-range data predictions have shifted focus to the hardwood and identified value bets and best odds for the 2026 NBA Championship.

By the end of Thursday, October 23, every team will have played at least one game of the 2025-26 season and our model has been analyzing the NBA Finals winner market ever since the start of preseason. The Oklahoma City Thunder sit as favorites after winning it all last season, but there's more NBA futures value to be found past the reigning champs.

With the action now in play, here’s a look ahead to the 2025-26 NBA title race, where our predictive model estimates true NBA Championship probabilities and spots value mismatches with the futures betting market.

What is an NBA futures bet?

Our NBA Futures model simulates the season, including the regular season and playoffs, thousands of times using inputs such as roster strength, player health, team efficiency, and schedule difficulty.

The output: a true probability of each team winning the 2026 NBA Finals. We then compare these model probabilities to implied probabilities derived from futures betting odds. When our “fair odds” diverge significantly from market odds, we’ve identified value.

NBA futures: Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals?

At the top of the probability distribution sit a handful of teams that stand out:

Oklahoma City Thunder

2026 NBA Championship probability: 24.9%

Coming off a title run, the Thunder are firmly positioned as the favorite in both market and model projections. Their core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren ranks as one of the best in the league.

Denver Nuggets

2026 NBA Championship probability: 12.7%

With offseason moves like the additions of Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas and Tim Hardaway Jr. improving depth around Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, Denver remains one of the Western Conference’s most complete teams. Their chemistry and playoff experience keep them squarely in contention to get back to the Finals.

New York Knicks

2026 NBA Championship probability: 9.6%

After a deep playoff run, the Knicks look poised to take the next step. Jalen Brunson’s leadership and an upgraded supporting cast make them one of the East’s most dangerous teams, and our model's favorite in the conference.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2026 NBA Championship probability: 8.9%

Led by Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, Cleveland has legitimate title upside after a disappointing early exit from last year's playoffs. With their defensive improvements and continuity, they project as a top threat in the East.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2026 NBA Championship probability: 6.7%

Minnesota looks to take the next step after back-to-back Western Conference Finals exits, where they won just one game in each. With one of the league's best young players in Anthony Edwards, their upside remains high as a Top 3 team in the West.

Best value bets to win the NBA Finals in 2026

New York Knicks (9.6%)

Best available odds: +1100

Fair odds: +950

The Knicks’ true championship probability sits near 9.6%, meaning their +1100 odds carry slight value. The team’s blend of elite defense, rebounding, and improving perimeter shooting makes them one of the most balanced rosters in the league. With the East less top-heavy this year as two of their postseason opponents (Celtics, Pacers) deal with injuries and sit well outside the highest-projected teams in the conference, their path to the Finals is clearer than the odds suggest.

Minnesota Timberwolves (6.7%)

Best available odds: +2200 

Fair odds: +1400

The Timberwolves’ model probability of 6.7% translates to fair odds closer to +1400, meaning the current market is underrating them. They've reached the playoffs in four straight years, but managed just one win in their past two WCF appearances. However, Minnesota’s defensive foundation, led by Rudy Gobert, and Anthony Edwards’ continued offensive growth give them a realistic shot at a Finals run if they stay healthy.

San Antonio Spurs (1.7%)

Best available odds: +6600

Fair odds: +5800

The Spurs’ odds may be long and their chances slim, but our model suggests slightly lower odds would be fair at 1.7%, so +6600 represents some value. Victor Wembanyama made a statement in the Spurs' first win of the season and his further development into an MVP-level player could transform San Antonio even more quickly than expected. With improved shooting and lineup depth, the Spurs have the upside to outperform expectations and great value to do so.

Dark horses to win the NBA Finals in 2026

Boston Celtics (1.1%) 

Best available odds: +6000

Fair odds: +8800

Injuries and roster changes have dropped Boston’s market odds, but they still hold a 1.1% chance to win according to our simulations. They're still favored to make the playoffs, so if Jayson Tatum returns healthy in February as expected and the team regains form, they could make a late-season surge. Veteran experience and clubhouse culture keep them relevant even when undervalued.

Indiana Pacers (1.3%)

Best available odds: +15000

Fair odds: +7600

The Pacers remain an interesting long-shot bet. Despite missing Tyrese Haliburton for the entire 2025-26 season after his Game 7 injury in the NBA Finals, their pace-and-space offense and young core led by Tyrese Haliburton give them volatility with upside. Most importantly, even as a longshot, their odds are much longer than the Dimers model says they should be, presenting clear value on a lower-risk, high upside play.

Final word: Dimers predicts the future

Best NBA Finals value pick: Knicks +1100 to win the 2026 NBA Title

The market for NBA futures is deep, and while favorites typically reflect efficient pricing, value opportunities remain. The Knicks, Timberwolves, and Spurs each offer an edge relative to their implied probabilities, while the Celtics and Pacers serve as dark-horse plays for those seeking big returns.

Beyond our daily bets, the Dimers model has proven to win when it comes to futures betting:

• 🏀 Aces vs. Mercury - both WNBA Finals teams identified months ago
• ⚾️ Blue Jays +1300 to win the AL East - cashed

Now, we look to capitalize on some early value in the NBA - don't wait, get it it before it's gone!