Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions prediction favors Hawks to win Saturday's AFL Round 28 matchup [9/19/2026]

The Hawthorn Hawks will square off with the Brisbane Lions in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 3:15 AM ET.

Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Hawks prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Hawks vs. Lions prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Lions and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Hawks a 55.1% chance of beating the Lions. According to our model, the Hawks (+3.5) have a 59.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 191.5-point over/under has a 51.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Lions -125, Hawks +100
• Total: Over/Under 191.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Hawks +3.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Hawks @ +100 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 191.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Hawks and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 3:15 AM ET.

• Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 3:15 AM ET/12:15AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Hawks, with a 55.1% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.