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Celtics vs. Heat prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Thursday's NBA matchup [1/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Miami Heat will take on the Boston Celtics in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Celtics as the most likely winner of the Celtics vs. Heat game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature players like Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo, while the Celtics will look to Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Celtics vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA game between the Celtics and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Celtics a 59% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Celtics winning 116-114.
According to our model, the Celtics (-2.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Celtics vs. Heat odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Celtics | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +110 |
| Total | o234.5 (-102) | u234.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Celtics vs. Heat picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Celtics -2.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Celtics | -125 |
| Total | Under 234.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Celtics to win.
Celtics vs. Heat player props
NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Boston vs. Miami game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.
Jaylen Brown is expected to lead the Celtics with 30 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Tyler Herro is projected to have 20 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for the Heat.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Celtics prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Celtics are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 30 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 52 |
| Derrick White | 19 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 41 |
| P. Pritchard | 16 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 33 |
| Anfernee Simons | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| Neemias Queta | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
Heat prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 36 |
| Norman Powell | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Bam Adebayo | 17 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
Celtics vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Heat and Celtics at Kaseya Center is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Conclusion
We predict the Celtics, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Thursday, with Jaylen Brown projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Celtics vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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