Celtics vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Celtics vs. Heat NBA game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Celtics
119
114
Kaseya Center
Heat
Kaseya Center
TEAM1234T
Celtics
25 29 29 31 119
Heat
36 28 29 16 114
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Celtics
    >99%
  • Heat
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Celtics
25 29 29 31 119
Heat
36 28 29 16 114
Q4 00:00 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:25 Bam Adebayo misses two point running pullup jump shot
Q4 00:55 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:01 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:41 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:53 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:59 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:40 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:56 Derrick White blocks Heat's two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:03
    +1
    Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    114-109
  3. Q4 00:03
    Celtics offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:08
    Heat personal foul
  5. Q4 00:08
    +1
    Sam Hauser makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    114-109
  6. Q4 00:08
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
  7. Q4 00:13
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
  8. Q4 00:13
    Heat 60 second timeout
  9. Q4 00:13
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
  10. Q4 00:13
    +1
    Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    115-109
  11. Q4 00:15
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  12. Q4 00:15
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
  13. Q4 00:25
    Bam Adebayo misses two point running pullup jump shot
  14. Q4 00:55
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  15. Q4 00:59
    Tyler Herro defensive rebound
  16. Q4 1:01
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  17. Q4 1:38
    Celtics offensive rebound
  18. Q4 1:38
    Sam Hauser violation
  19. Q4 1:38
    Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
  20. Q4 1:41
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  21. Q4 1:51
    Celtics offensive rebound
  22. Q4 1:53
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  23. Q4 1:54
    Jaylen Brown offensive rebound
  24. Q4 2:16
    Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
  25. Q4 2:46
    Heat personal foul
  26. Q4 2:59
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  27. Q4 3:29
    Heat 60 second timeout
  28. Q4 3:33
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-107
  29. Q4 3:40
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  30. Q4 3:53
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  31. Q4 3:56
    Derrick White blocks Heat's two point jump shot
  32. Q4 4:25
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    111-107
  33. Q4 4:45
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    111-107
  34. Q4 5:01
    Celtics personal foul
  35. Q4 5:01
    +1
    Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    111-107
  36. Q4 5:31
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  37. Q4 5:33
    Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
  38. Q4 6:13
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  39. Q4 6:23
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    98-100
  40. Q4 6:46
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)
    98-100
  41. Q4 6:51
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  42. Q4 7:00
    Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
  43. Q4 7:15
    Celtics personal foul
  44. Q4 7:15
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
  45. Q4 7:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  46. Q4 7:35
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
  47. Q4 7:40
    Derrick White personal foul
  48. Q4 7:47
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  49. Q4 7:52
    Derrick White misses three point jump shot
  50. Q4 8:27
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  51. Q4 8:29
    Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
  52. Q4 8:45
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  53. Q4 9:22
    Heat turnover
  54. Q4 9:40
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  55. Q4 9:45
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  56. Q4 9:48
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  57. Q4 9:58
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    89-95
  58. Q4 10:09
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  59. Q4 10:27
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    87-95
  60. Q4 10:38
    Celtics personal foul
  61. Q4 10:45
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    87-93
  62. Q4 11:14
    Tyler Herro offensive rebound
  63. Q3 00:00
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  64. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  65. Q4 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
  66. Q3 00:11
    Celtics defensive rebound
  67. Q3 00:11
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  68. Q3 00:11
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
  69. Q3 00:14
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  70. Q3 00:34
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    83-93
  71. Q3 00:46
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  72. Q3 1:04
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    80-93
  73. Q3 1:14
    Derrick White defensive rebound
  74. Q3 1:29
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  75. Q3 2:06
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  76. Q3 2:10
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  77. Q3 2:20
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  78. Q3 2:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  79. Q3 3:10
    Celtics personal foul
  80. Q3 3:10
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    76-88
  81. Q3 3:10
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    76-89
  82. Q3 3:10
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
  83. Q3 3:10
    +1
    Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    76-90
  84. Q3 3:18
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  85. Q3 3:36
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    76-87
  86. Q3 3:46
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    74-85
  87. Q3 3:46
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    76-85
  88. Q3 3:57
    Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
  89. Q3 4:18
    Celtics personal foul
  90. Q3 4:18
    Heat offensive rebound
  91. Q3 4:49
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  92. Q3 5:10
    Celtics personal foul
  93. Q3 5:10
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    69-82
  94. Q3 5:35
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  95. Q3 5:35
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    69-79
  96. Q3 6:01
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    69-78
  97. Q3 6:06
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  98. Q3 6:06
    Celtics defensive rebound
  99. Q3 6:09
    Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
  100. Q3 6:12
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  101. Q3 6:31
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    66-78
  102. Q3 6:51
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    66-76
  103. Q3 6:56
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  104. Q3 6:58
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  105. Q3 7:11
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    66-74
  106. Q3 7:26
    Celtics personal foul
  107. Q3 7:30
    Heat personal foul
  108. Q3 7:30
    +1
    Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    65-72
  109. Q3 7:30
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
  110. Q3 7:36
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  111. Q3 8:43
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    60-72
  112. Q3 8:53
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  113. Q3 8:56
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  114. Q3 9:20
    Celtics personal foul
  115. Q3 9:20
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    60-69
  116. Q3 9:20
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    60-70
  117. Q3 9:45
    Heat personal foul
  118. Q3 10:20
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  119. Q3 10:28
    Heat offensive rebound
  120. Q3 10:28
    Celtics personal foul
  121. Q3 10:34
    Celtics turnover
  122. Q3 10:36
    Neemias Queta offensive rebound
  123. Q3 10:57
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    56-67
  124. Q3 11:16
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    56-64
  125. Q3 11:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  126. Q3 11:27
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  127. Q3 11:41
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  128. Q2 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  129. Q3 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Payton Pritchard)
  130. Q2 00:03
    Heat personal foul
  131. Q2 00:03
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    53-64
  132. Q2 00:03
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    54-64
  133. Q2 00:30
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  134. Q2 00:48
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  135. Q2 1:11
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    52-60
  136. Q2 2:19
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  137. Q2 2:47
    Heat personal foul
  138. Q2 2:50
    Celtics personal foul
  139. Q2 3:00
    +1
    Luka Garza makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    46-55
  140. Q2 3:00
    +1
    Luka Garza makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    47-55
  141. Q2 3:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  142. Q2 3:19
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  143. Q2 3:31
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    44-55
  144. Q2 3:34
    Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
  145. Q2 3:48
    Heat personal foul
  146. Q2 3:48
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard)
  147. Q2 4:10
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    43-55
  148. Q2 4:22
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  149. Q2 5:02
    Payton Pritchard offensive rebound
  150. Q2 5:23
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    43-52
  151. Q2 5:35
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    43-50
  152. Q2 5:53
    Celtics personal foul
  153. Q2 5:53
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    41-49
  154. Q2 5:53
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    41-50
  155. Q2 6:29
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    38-48
  156. Q2 6:47
    Luka Garza offensive rebound
  157. Q2 7:14
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  158. Q2 7:14
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
  159. Q2 7:19
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  160. Q2 7:38
    Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
  161. Q2 7:56
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    36-43
  162. Q2 8:17
    Celtics turnover
  163. Q2 8:37
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    34-38
  164. Q2 8:41
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  165. Q2 9:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  166. Q2 9:17
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman, Anfernee Simons)
  167. Q2 9:20
    Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound
  168. Q2 9:39
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  169. Q2 9:42
    Celtics personal foul
  170. Q2 9:42
    Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  171. Q2 9:42
    Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  172. Q2 9:50
    Heat turnover
  173. Q2 9:53
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  174. Q2 10:01
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    30-38
  175. Q2 10:04
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  176. Q2 10:18
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  177. Q2 10:19
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  178. Q2 10:24
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  179. Q2 10:31
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  180. Q2 10:34
    Heat personal foul
  181. Q2 10:34
    +1
    Neemias Queta makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    28-38
  182. Q2 10:47
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  183. Q2 11:12
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    27-38
  184. Q2 11:32
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-38
  185. Q2 11:37
    Celtics turnover
  186. Q2 11:43
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  187. Q2 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons)
  188. Q1 00:01
    Anfernee Simons defensive rebound
  189. Q1 00:04
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  190. Q1 00:06
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  191. Q1 00:06
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  192. Q1 00:32
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  193. Q1 00:36
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  194. Q1 00:57
    Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
  195. Q1 1:05
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  196. Q1 1:19
    Heat personal foul
  197. Q1 1:19
    +1
    Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-36
  198. Q1 1:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  199. Q1 1:28
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  200. Q1 1:33
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  201. Q1 2:15
    Celtics personal foul
  202. Q1 2:15
    Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  203. Q1 2:15
    +1
    Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    20-33
  204. Q1 2:27
    Heat 60 second timeout
  205. Q1 2:29
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    20-32
  206. Q1 2:44
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  207. Q1 2:58
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    17-32
  208. Q1 3:03
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  209. Q1 3:17
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    15-32
  210. Q1 3:21
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  211. Q1 3:42
    Celtics offensive rebound
  212. Q1 3:57
    Heat personal foul
  213. Q1 3:57
    Nikola Jovic turnover (offensive foul)
  214. Q1 4:03
    Heat defensive rebound
  215. Q1 4:03
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Kel'el Ware)
  216. Q1 4:25
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    12-30
  217. Q1 4:47
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  218. Q1 5:11
    Celtics personal foul
  219. Q1 5:11
    Heat offensive rebound
  220. Q1 5:11
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    9-28
  221. Q1 5:27
    Luka Garza turnover (jump ball violation)
  222. Q1 5:29
    Luka Garza offensive rebound
  223. Q1 5:35
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  224. Q1 5:49
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  225. Q1 5:50
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    9-27
  226. Q1 5:54
    Celtics turnover
  227. Q1 6:04
    Heat personal foul
  228. Q1 6:19
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
  229. Q1 7:01
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    7-18
  230. Q1 7:07
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  231. Q1 7:21
    Celtics personal foul
  232. Q1 7:21
    Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
  233. Q1 7:38
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    4-18
  234. Q1 7:41
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  235. Q1 7:44
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  236. Q1 7:54
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  237. Q1 7:54
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    4-15
  238. Q1 7:54
    Celtics personal foul
  239. Q1 7:54
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  240. Q1 7:54
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    4-16
  241. Q1 7:57
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  242. Q1 8:11
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  243. Q1 8:22
    Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
  244. Q1 8:33
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  245. Q1 8:52
    Derrick White defensive rebound
  246. Q1 9:08
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  247. Q1 9:11
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  248. Q1 9:23
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    4-13
  249. Q1 9:37
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  250. Q1 9:48
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    4-11
  251. Q1 10:23
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  252. Q1 10:36
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    4-6
  253. Q1 11:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  254. Q1 11:09
    Sam Hauser offensive rebound
  255. Q1 11:31
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    0-3
  256. Q1 11:59
    Celtics offensive rebound
  257. Q1 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Payton Pritchard)
  258. Q1 12:00
    Neemias Queta vs. Bam Adebayo (Payton Pritchard gains possession)
Box Score
Celtics
PosPlayerPts
Heat
PosPlayerPts

Celtics vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Celtics vs. Heat
  • Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Celtics favored at -2.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Celtics -137, Heat +135

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Celtics: 61%
  • Heat: 39%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Celtics 119-115 Heat.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Celtics a win probability of 61%, while the Heat have a win probability of 39%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Celtics are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Celtics vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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