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Celtics vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Celtics vs. Heat NBA game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
119
114
Jan 16, 12:30AM Kaseya Center
Jan 16, 12:30AM Kaseya Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Celtics | 25 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 119 |
Heat | 36 | 28 | 29 | 16 | 114 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Celtics | 25 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 119 |
Heat | 36 | 28 | 29 | 16 | 114 |
Q4 00:00 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:25 Bam Adebayo misses two point running pullup jump shot
Q4 00:55 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:01 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:41 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:53 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:59 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:40 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:56 Derrick White blocks Heat's two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Heat misses three point jump shot
+1
Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 1 of 2
114-109
Celtics offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Sam Hauser makes regular free throw 1 of 2
114-109
Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
+1
Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 2 of 2
115-109
Celtics 60 second timeout
Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
Bam Adebayo misses two point running pullup jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Celtics offensive rebound
Sam Hauser violation
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Overturned)
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Celtics offensive rebound
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Jaylen Brown offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
+1
Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-107
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
Derrick White blocks Heat's two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
111-107
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
111-107
Celtics personal foul
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-107
Celtics 60 second timeout
Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
98-100
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)
98-100
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
Celtics personal foul
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Derrick White personal foul
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Derrick White misses three point jump shot
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
89-95
Celtics misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
87-95
Celtics personal foul
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
87-93
Tyler Herro offensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
Celtics defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
83-93
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
80-93
Derrick White defensive rebound
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Celtics personal foul
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 3
76-88
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 3
76-89
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Hugo Gonzalez)
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 3 of 3
76-90
Celtics misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
76-87
+1
Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 3
74-85
+1
Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 3 of 3
76-85
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
Celtics personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
Celtics 60 second timeout
Celtics personal foul
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
69-82
Heat misses three point jump shot
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 3
69-79
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
69-78
Heat misses two point jump shot
Celtics defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
66-78
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
66-76
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Celtics misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
66-74
Celtics personal foul
Heat personal foul
+1
Jaylen Brown makes regular free throw 1 of 2
65-72
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Kasparas Jakucionis, Bam Adebayo)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
60-72
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Celtics personal foul
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
60-69
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
60-70
Heat personal foul
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Celtics personal foul
Celtics turnover
Neemias Queta offensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
56-67
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
56-64
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Payton Pritchard)
Heat personal foul
+1
Derrick White makes regular free throw 1 of 2
53-64
+1
Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
54-64
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
52-60
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Celtics personal foul
+1
Luka Garza makes regular free throw 1 of 2
46-55
+1
Luka Garza makes regular free throw 2 of 2
47-55
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+1
Derrick White makes regular free throw 1 of 2
44-55
Jordan Walsh offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
43-55
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Payton Pritchard offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
43-52
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
43-50
Celtics personal foul
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
41-49
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-50
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
38-48
Luka Garza offensive rebound
Celtics 60 second timeout
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
36-43
Celtics turnover
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
34-38
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman, Anfernee Simons)
Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
Celtics personal foul
Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat turnover
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
30-38
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Neemias Queta makes regular free throw 1 of 2
28-38
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
27-38
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-38
Celtics turnover
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Baylor Scheierman, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons)
Anfernee Simons defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Anfernee Simons makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-36
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Celtics personal foul
Nikola Jovic misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
20-33
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
20-32
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
+2
Celtics makes two point jump shot
17-32
Celtics misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
15-32
Heat misses three point jump shot
Celtics offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Nikola Jovic turnover (offensive foul)
Heat defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Kel'el Ware)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
12-30
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Celtics personal foul
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
9-28
Luka Garza turnover (jump ball violation)
Luka Garza offensive rebound
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Celtics 60 second timeout
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
9-27
Celtics turnover
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo)
+3
Celtics makes three point jump shot
7-18
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
Celtics personal foul
Celtics lineup change (Jordan Walsh, Jaylen Brown, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Payton Pritchard)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
4-18
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
4-15
Celtics personal foul
Celtics 60 second timeout
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
4-16
Heat misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
Celtics misses three point jump shot
Derrick White defensive rebound
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Celtics misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
4-13
Celtics misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
4-11
Celtics misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
4-6
Heat misses three point jump shot
Sam Hauser offensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
0-3
Celtics offensive rebound
Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Neemias Queta, Payton Pritchard)
Neemias Queta vs. Bam Adebayo (Payton Pritchard gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Celtics vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Celtics vs. Heat
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Celtics favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 234.5
- Moneyline Odds: Celtics -137, Heat +135
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Celtics: 61%
- Heat: 39%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Celtics 119-115 Heat.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Celtics a win probability of 61%, while the Heat have a win probability of 39%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Celtics are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Celtics vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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