Bucks vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Bucks vs. Spurs NBA game on January 15, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NBA
Bucks
101
119
Frost Bank Center
Spurs
Frost Bank Center
TEAM1234T
Bucks
27 26 19 29 101
Spurs
31 35 42 11 119
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Bucks
    <1%
  • Spurs
    >99%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Bucks
27 26 19 29 101
Spurs
31 35 42 11 119
Q4 00:00 Bucks misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:01 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:30 Carter Bryant misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:04 Andre Jackson Jr. makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:58 Amir Coffey misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:31 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:23 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 5:14 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 7:12 Pete Nance blocks Carter Bryant's two point cutting layup
Q4 7:44 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:00
    Spurs violation
  3. Q4 00:00
    Bucks offensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:01
    Kelly Olynyk defensive goaltending violation
  5. Q4 00:23
    Bucks defensive rebound
  6. Q4 00:23
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  7. Q4 00:56
    Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
  8. Q4 1:01
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  9. Q4 1:30
    Carter Bryant misses two point jump shot
  10. Q4 1:34
    Bucks turnover
  11. Q4 2:04
    +3
    Andre Jackson Jr. makes three point jump shot
    98-119
  12. Q4 2:26
    Jordan McLaughlin turnover (traveling)
  13. Q4 2:42
    Jordan McLaughlin turnover
  14. Q4 2:45
    Jericho Sims personal foul (Kelly Olynyk draws the foul)
  15. Q4 2:51
    Spurs personal foul
  16. Q4 2:51
    Bucks offensive rebound
  17. Q4 2:54
    Jericho Sims offensive rebound
  18. Q4 2:58
    Amir Coffey misses three point jump shot
  19. Q4 3:11
    Cole Anthony defensive rebound
  20. Q4 3:31
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  21. Q4 3:31
    Bucks offensive rebound
  22. Q4 3:31
    +1
    Andre Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    98-119
  23. Q4 3:31
    +1
    Andre Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    98-119
  24. Q4 3:57
    Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
  25. Q4 4:21
    Jericho Sims defensive rebound
  26. Q4 4:23
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  27. Q4 4:29
    Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul (Lindy Waters III draws the foul)
  28. Q4 5:08
    +1
    Andre Jackson Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    98-119
  29. Q4 5:14
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  30. Q4 5:21
    Bucks personal foul
  31. Q4 5:40
    Spurs turnover
  32. Q4 5:47
    Spurs personal foul
  33. Q4 5:59
    Jericho Sims defensive rebound
  34. Q4 6:19
    Amir Coffey misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  35. Q4 6:53
    Bucks defensive rebound
  36. Q4 7:07
    Andre Jackson Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
  37. Q4 7:07
    Spurs lineup change (Jeremy Sochan, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III, Carter Bryant)
  38. Q4 7:12
    Pete Nance blocks Carter Bryant's two point cutting layup
  39. Q4 7:44
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    85-115
  40. Q4 7:57
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    85-115
  41. Q4 8:18
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    85-115
  42. Q4 8:33
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  43. Q4 8:36
    Amir Coffey misses three point jump shot
  44. Q4 9:12
    Jeremy Sochan personal foul (Amir Coffey draws the foul)
  45. Q4 9:12
    +1
    Amir Coffey makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    85-115
  46. Q4 9:48
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  47. Q4 10:07
    Spurs turnover
  48. Q4 10:07
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Jeremy Sochan, Kelly Olynyk, Lindy Waters III, Carter Bryant)
  49. Q4 10:16
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  50. Q4 10:16
    Bucks lineup change (Andre Jackson Jr., Amir Coffey, Pete Nance, Cole Anthony, Jericho Sims)
  51. Q4 10:16
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Jeremy Sochan, Kelly Olynyk, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant)
  52. Q4 10:29
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  53. Q4 11:05
    Bobby Portis turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  54. Q4 11:19
    Spurs personal foul
  55. Q4 11:19
    Keldon Johnson turnover (offensive foul)
  56. Q4 11:28
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    72-108
  57. Q4 11:45
    Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
  58. Q3 00:00
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  59. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  60. Q4 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
  61. Q3 00:19
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  62. Q3 00:22
    Kyle Kuzma misses three point jump shot
  63. Q3 00:36
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point jump shot
    72-108
  64. Q3 00:42
    Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
  65. Q3 00:56
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  66. Q3 1:33
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    72-108
  67. Q3 1:55
    Bucks personal foul
  68. Q3 1:55
    Spurs offensive rebound
  69. Q3 1:55
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    72-108
  70. Q3 2:01
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  71. Q3 2:16
    Spurs personal foul
  72. Q3 2:29
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
  73. Q3 3:04
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    69-102
  74. Q3 3:14
    Ryan Rollins personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
  75. Q3 3:36
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    69-102
  76. Q3 3:57
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  77. Q3 4:00
    Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
  78. Q3 4:20
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  79. Q3 4:30
    Kevin Porter Jr. misses two point jump shot
  80. Q3 5:03
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  81. Q3 5:22
    Dylan Harper offensive rebound
  82. Q3 5:22
    +2
    Dylan Harper makes two point jump shot
    59-81
  83. Q3 5:36
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  84. Q3 5:43
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  85. Q3 5:46
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  86. Q3 5:58
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  87. Q3 6:15
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    59-81
  88. Q3 6:15
    Dylan Harper shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
  89. Q3 6:19
    Bobby Portis defensive rebound
  90. Q3 6:29
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  91. Q3 6:32
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  92. Q3 7:04
    AJ Green shooting foul (Julian Champagnie draws the foul)
  93. Q3 7:04
    Instant replay (Request)
  94. Q3 7:04
    +3
    Julian Champagnie makes three point jump shot
    59-81
  95. Q3 7:04
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    59-81
  96. Q3 7:04
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet)
  97. Q3 7:04
    Julian Champagnie misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  98. Q3 7:22
    +2
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point dunk (Myles Turner assists)
    59-81
  99. Q3 7:32
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point driving layup
    59-81
  100. Q3 7:46
    Bucks turnover
  101. Q3 8:02
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    59-81
  102. Q3 8:23
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  103. Q3 8:28
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  104. Q3 8:44
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  105. Q3 9:00
    Ryan Rollins misses three point jump shot
  106. Q3 9:08
    Spurs personal foul
  107. Q3 9:48
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  108. Q3 9:48
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    56-75
  109. Q3 9:52
    Myles Turner defensive rebound
  110. Q3 10:13
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    56-72
  111. Q3 10:48
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  112. Q3 10:57
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  113. Q3 11:10
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  114. Q3 11:24
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    53-69
  115. Q3 11:39
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  116. Q2 00:00
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  117. Q2 00:00
    Bucks offensive rebound
  118. Q3 12:00
    Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green)
  119. Q2 00:01
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  120. Q2 00:29
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
    50-66
  121. Q2 00:43
    Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
  122. Q2 00:53
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  123. Q2 1:33
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  124. Q2 1:35
    Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
  125. Q2 1:50
    Bucks personal foul
  126. Q2 1:50
    Spurs offensive rebound
  127. Q2 1:54
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    47-60
  128. Q2 2:11
    De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  129. Q2 2:11
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox)
  130. Q2 2:35
    Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
  131. Q2 2:58
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  132. Q2 3:13
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  133. Q2 3:28
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  134. Q2 3:28
    Spurs offensive rebound
  135. Q2 3:28
    Bucks personal foul
  136. Q2 3:28
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    43-58
  137. Q2 3:28
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    43-59
  138. Q2 3:39
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson)
  139. Q2 3:39
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant)
  140. Q2 3:48
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    43-57
  141. Q2 4:06
    Ryan Rollins offensive rebound
  142. Q2 4:10
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  143. Q2 4:25
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    40-55
  144. Q2 4:26
    Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr.)
  145. Q2 4:26
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
  146. Q2 4:30
    Bucks turnover
  147. Q2 4:55
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    40-53
  148. Q2 5:05
    Kyle Kuzma offensive rebound
  149. Q2 5:21
    Spurs turnover
  150. Q2 5:21
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson)
  151. Q2 5:26
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  152. Q2 5:45
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    40-49
  153. Q2 5:45
    Bucks lineup change (Kyle Kuzma, Gary Trent Jr., Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr.)
  154. Q2 6:22
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  155. Q2 6:52
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    37-45
  156. Q2 6:56
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  157. Q2 7:05
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  158. Q2 7:05
    Bucks lineup change (Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr.)
  159. Q2 7:12
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  160. Q2 7:26
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  161. Q2 7:43
    Bucks personal foul
  162. Q2 7:43
    Bucks lineup change (Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gary Harris)
  163. Q2 7:51
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  164. Q2 8:16
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  165. Q2 8:37
    Gary Harris defensive rebound
  166. Q2 8:51
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  167. Q2 9:04
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    37-34
  168. Q2 9:22
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    37-33
  169. Q2 9:56
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  170. Q2 9:56
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Lindy Waters III, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  171. Q2 10:05
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  172. Q2 10:19
    Bucks turnover
  173. Q2 11:17
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  174. Q2 11:20
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  175. Q2 11:46
    Bucks offensive rebound
  176. Q2 11:46
    +1
    Ryan Rollins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    28-31
  177. Q1 00:00
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  178. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  179. Q2 12:00
    Bucks lineup change (Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris)
  180. Q2 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Victor Wembanyama, Julian Champagnie, De'Aaron Fox)
  181. Q1 00:26
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    27-28
  182. Q1 00:54
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  183. Q1 1:20
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    25-26
  184. Q1 1:26
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  185. Q1 1:45
    +2
    Bucks makes two point jump shot
    22-26
  186. Q1 2:36
    Bucks personal foul
  187. Q1 2:36
    +1
    Carter Bryant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    17-23
  188. Q1 2:43
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  189. Q1 2:49
    Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
  190. Q1 3:04
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  191. Q1 3:09
    Bucks misses three point jump shot
  192. Q1 3:40
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant)
  193. Q1 3:41
    Gary Harris offensive rebound
  194. Q1 4:04
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  195. Q1 4:06
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  196. Q1 4:38
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 3
    17-19
  197. Q1 4:38
    Bucks lineup change (Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Harris)
  198. Q1 4:48
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  199. Q1 5:11
    Bucks personal foul
  200. Q1 5:11
    Dylan Harper misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  201. Q1 5:23
    Bucks lineup change (Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green)
  202. Q1 5:36
    Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
  203. Q1 6:14
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  204. Q1 6:17
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  205. Q1 6:40
    Bucks 60 second timeout
  206. Q1 6:46
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  207. Q1 7:10
    Spurs personal foul
  208. Q1 7:10
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes clear path free throw 2 of 2
    15-14
  209. Q1 7:32
    +3
    Bucks makes three point jump shot
    13-14
  210. Q1 7:39
    Spurs personal foul
  211. Q1 7:39
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson)
  212. Q1 7:44
    Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
  213. Q1 7:47
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  214. Q1 7:58
    Bucks turnover
  215. Q1 8:02
    Myles Turner offensive rebound
  216. Q1 8:25
    Bucks misses two point jump shot
  217. Q1 8:29
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  218. Q1 8:32
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  219. Q1 9:08
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    8-11
  220. Q1 9:18
    Bucks offensive rebound
  221. Q1 9:18
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    8-8
  222. Q1 9:39
    Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
  223. Q1 9:39
    +1
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    7-5
  224. Q1 9:46
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  225. Q1 10:16
    +3
    De'Aaron Fox makes three point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
    5-5
  226. Q1 10:29
    Giannis Antetokounmpo misses two point pullup jump shot
  227. Q1 10:56
    +2
    Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point driving dunk (AJ Green assists)
    5-0
  228. Q1 11:11
    Harrison Barnes misses two point driving layup
  229. Q1 11:31
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  230. Q1 11:33
    Bucks offensive rebound
  231. Q1 11:40
    Victor Wembanyama turnover (bad pass) (Giannis Antetokounmpo steals)
  232. Q1 12:00
    Bucks lineup change (Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green)
  233. Q1 12:00
    Myles Turner vs. Victor Wembanyama (Stephon Castle gains possession)
Box Score
Bucks
PosPlayerPts
Spurs
PosPlayerPts

Bucks vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Bucks vs. Spurs
  • Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Frost Bank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Spurs favored at -7
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Bucks +220, Spurs -235

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Bucks: 30%
  • Spurs: 70%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Bucks 109-115 Spurs.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bucks a win probability of 30%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 70%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Bucks in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Bucks vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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