Best bets today for all sports: Thursday's picks include Sparks vs. Mercury WNBA play [5/21/2026]

WNBA: Sparks vs. Mercury under 176.5 points (+106)

• Edge: 21.8%
• Probability: 70.3%
• WNBA matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on under 176.5 points in Sparks vs. Mercury at +106 odds. A 70.3% probability produces an edge of 21.8%, making this the strongest play for today's sports action.

WNBA: Sparks +3.5 (-103)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 59.4%
• MLB matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Sparks +3.5 carries an 8.7% edge and a probability of 59.4% at -103 odds, according to our model.

MLB: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 53.4%
• MLB Matchup: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET, Thursday)

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs at +113 odds shows a 6.4% edge, supported by a 53.4% probability in simulations.

MLB: Blue Jays vs. Yankees over 7.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 59.8%
• MLB Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Thursday)

A 6.3% edge and 59.8% probability make Blue Jays vs. Yankees over 7.5 runs at a value play in the Blue Jays vs. Yankees matchup, per our model.

WNBA: Sparks ML (+144)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 46.9%
• WNBA Matchup: Sparks vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Sparks ML at +144 odds presents a 5.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 46.9%.

Tennis: Aleksandar Kovacevic ML (+210)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 38.1%
• Tennis Matchup: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli (8:20AM ET, Thursday)

Our model finds value on Aleksandar Kovacevic to win at +210 odds at ATP Brisbane, supported by an edge of 5.8%.

WNBA: Valkyries +7.5 (+102)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 55.2%
• WNBA Matchup: Valkyries vs. Liberty (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on Valkyries +7.5 at +102 odds. A 55.2% probability produces a 5.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.

Tennis: Yasmine Kabbaj +5.5 (-125)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 61%
• Tennis Matchup: Jil Teichmann vs. Yasmine Kabbaj (9:30AM ET, Thursday)

A 5.5% edge on a 61% probability makes Yasmine Kabbaj +5.5 at -125 odds a solid value play in this WTA Morocco Open matchup.

NHL: Canadiens ML (+190)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 39.8%
• NHL Matchup: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on Canadiens to win at +190 odds. A 39.8% probability produces a 5.3% edge, making Canadiens the favorable ML play in Saturday’s NHL matchup.

MLB: Guardians vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 51.5%
• MLB Matchup: Guardians vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Thursday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Guardians vs. Tigers over 7.5 runs at +115 odds shows a 51.5% probability and a 5.0% edge.

Best sports bets today summary: Thursday, 5/21/2026

As of 3:35AM ET, here are our top bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming events to bet on now [5/21/2026]

• Tennis: Ann Li vs. Marie Bouzkova (4:30AM ET, Thursday)
• AFL: Crows vs. Hawks (5:30AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Daria Kasatkina vs. Jaqueline Cristian (5:40AM ET, Thursday)
• NRL: Dolphins vs. Raiders (5:50AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Ugo Humbert vs. Ignacio Buse (6:00AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Panna Udvardy vs. Camila Osorio (6:00AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Jaume Munar vs. Mariano Navone (7:00AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Daniel Altmaier vs. Tommy Paul (7:10AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs. Petra Marcinko (7:10AM ET, Thursday)
• Tennis: Casper Ruud vs. Alexei Popyrin (8:10AM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our best bets are locked and loaded for May 21, 2026, featuring plays such as under 176.5 points in the Sparks vs. Mercury matchup and Sparks +3.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.