Best bets today for all sports: Monday's picks include Thunder vs. Lakers NBA play [5/11/2026]

NBA: Lakers +10.5 (+115)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 52.7%
• NBA matchup: Thunder vs. Lakers (10:30PM ET, Monday)

Our model has identified value on Lakers +10.5 at +115 odds. A 52.7% probability produces an edge of 6.2%, making this the strongest play for today's sports action.

MLB: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Tennis matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Monday)

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs carries a 6.1% edge and a probability of 56.1% at +100 odds, according to our model.

Tennis: Karen Khachanov ML (+158)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 44.4%
• Tennis Matchup: Karen Khachanov vs. Dino Prizmic (5:00AM ET, Tuesday)

Karen Khachanov ML at +158 odds shows a 5.6% edge, supported by a 44.4% probability in simulations of the ATP Italian Open match.

MLB: Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs (+130)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 47.4%
• MLB Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

A 3.9% edge and 47.4% probability make Yankees vs. Orioles over 9.5 runs at a value play in the Yankees vs. Orioles matchup, per our model.

Tennis: Karen Khachanov +2.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 56%
• Tennis Matchup: Karen Khachanov vs. Dino Prizmic (5:00AM ET, Tuesday)

Karen Khachanov +2.5 at -110 odds presents a 3.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56%.

MLB: Mariners vs. Astros over 8.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 56.5%
• MLB Matchup: Mariners vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Monday)

Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Mariners vs. Astros at -113 odds, supported by an edge of 3.5%.

NBA: Cavaliers ML (-147)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 62.7%
• NBA Matchup: Pistons vs. Cavaliers (8:00PM ET, Monday)

Our model has uncovered value on Cavaliers ML at -147 odds. A 62.7% probability produces a 3.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's NBA action.

MLB: Giants vs. Dodgers over 9.5 runs (+110)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 50.7%
• MLB Matchup: Giants vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Monday)

A 3.1% edge on a 50.7% probability makes over 9.5 runs at +110 odds a solid value play in today's Giants vs. Dodgers matchup.

Tennis: Karolina Pliskova ML (+630)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 16.4%
• Tennis Matchup: Karolina Pliskova vs. Elena Rybakina (2:30PM ET, Monday)

Our model projects value on Karolina Pliskova to win at +630 odds. A 16.4% probability produces a 2.7% edge, making Karolina Pliskova the favorable ML play in Saturday’s WTA Italian Open tennis matchup.

MLB: Orioles +1.5 (+100)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 52.6%
• MLB Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Orioles +1.5 at +100 odds shows a 52.6% probability and a 2.6% edge.

Best sports bets today summary: Monday, 5/11/2026

As of 9:35AM ET, here are our top bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Thunder vs. Lakers (NBA)	Lakers +10.5	+115 @ polymarket	6.2%	52.7%
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (MLB)	Over 7.5 Runs	+100 @ kalshi	6.1%	56.1%
Khachanov vs. Prizmic (Tennis)	Karen Khachanov ML	+158 @ FanDuel	5.6%	44.4%
Yankees vs. Orioles (MLB)	Over 9.5 Runs	+130 @ polymarket	3.9%	47.4%
Khachanov vs. Prizmic (Tennis)	Karen Khachanov +2.5 Games	-110 @ FanDuel	3.6%	56%
Mariners vs. Astros (MLB)	Over 8.5 Runs	-113 @ kalshi	3.5%	56.5%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers (NBA)	Cavaliers ML	-147 @ polymarket	3.2%	62.7%
Giants vs. Dodgers (MLB)	Over 9.5 Runs	+110 @ novig	3.1%	50.7%
Pliskova vs. Rybakina (Tennis)	Karolina Pliskova ML	+630 @ FanDuel	2.7%	16.4%
Yankees vs. Orioles (MLB)	Orioles +1.5	+100 @ kalshi	2.6%	52.6%

List of upcoming sports to bet on right now [5/11/2026]

• Tennis: Anastasia Potapova vs. Jessica Pegula (9:35AM ET, Monday)
• Tennis: Alexei Popyrin vs. Jannik Sinner (9:45AM ET, Monday)
• Tennis: Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Llamas Ruiz (10:30AM ET, Monday)
• Tennis: Iga Swiatek vs. Naomi Osaka (12:00PM ET, Monday)
• Tennis: Thiago Tirante vs. Flavio Cobolli (1:00PM ET, Monday)
• Tennis: Elena Rybakina vs. Karolina Pliskova (2:30PM ET, Monday)
• La Liga: Girona vs. Rayo Vallecano (3:00PM ET, Monday)
• EPL: Leeds vs. Tottenham (3:00PM ET, Monday)
• MLB: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Monday)
• MLB: Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our best bets are locked and loaded for May 11, 2026, featuring plays such as Lakers +10.5 and over 7.5 runs in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.