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Best bets today for all sports: Wednesday's picks include Sparks vs. Lynx WNBA play [7/15/2026]
Read Article Best bets today for all sports: Monday's picks include Dream vs. Wings WNBA play [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get the best bets for Monday, May 11, 2026.
Today’s best sports bets for May 11, 2026 are here, with Dream vs. Wings highlighted by our model across Monday’s play.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest odds to unearth top betting edges. The result? Data-backed plays that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of best bets for today [5/11, updated 10:36PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 bets, ranked by edge for Monday, May 11, 2026.
WNBA: Dream ML (-129)
- Edge: 22.9%
- Probability: 79.3%
- WNBA matchup: Dream vs. Wings (8:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model has identified value on Dream to defeat Wings at -129 odds. A 79.3% probability produces an edge of 22.9%, making this the strongest play for today's sports action.
WNBA: Dream vs. Wings under 180.5 points (+113)
- Edge: 19.6%
- Probability: 66.6%
- WNBA matchup: Dream vs. Wings (8:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Dream vs. Wings under 180.5 points carries a 19.6% edge and a probability of 66.6% at +113 odds, according to our model.
WNBA: Dream -2.5 (-105)
- Edge: 19.4%
- Probability: 70.6%
- WNBA Matchup: Dream vs. Wings (8:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Dream -2.5 vs. Wings at -105 odds shows a 19.4% edge, supported by a 70.6% probability in simulations.
WNBA: Liberty vs. Fire under 173.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 8.8%
- Probability: 61.1%
- WNBA Matchup: Liberty vs. Fire (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)
An 8.8% edge and 61.1% probability make Liberty vs. Fire under 173.5 points at a value play in the Liberty vs. Fire matchup, per our model.
MLB: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 53.7%
- MLB Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Tuesday)
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers over 8.5 runs at +113 odds presents a 6.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.7%.
WNBA: Mercury ML (-167)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 68.6%
- WNBA Matchup: Lynx vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model finds value on Mercury to win at -167 odds, supported by an edge of 6.1%.
WNBA: Fire +12.5 (-108)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 57.6%
- WNBA Matchup: Liberty vs. Fire (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model has uncovered value on Fire +12.5 at -108 odds. A 57.6% probability produces a 5.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.
WNBA: Mercury -3.5 (+100)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 55.7%
- WNBA Matchup: Lynx vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)
A 5.7% edge on a 55.7% probability makes Mercury -3.5 at +100 odds a solid value play in today's Lynx vs. Mercury matchup.
Tennis: Rafael Jodar -4.5 (-105)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 56.9%
- Tennis Matchup: Rafael Jodar vs. Learner Tien (6:10AM ET, Tuesday)
Our model projects value on Rafael Jodar -4.5 at -105 odds. A 56.9% probability produces a 5.7% edge, making Rafael Jodar the favorable side in Saturday’s ATP Italian Open tennis matchup.
WNBA: Lynx vs. Mercury under 171.5 points (-104)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 56.2%
- WNBA Matchup: Lynx vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Lynx vs. Mercury under 171.5 points at -104 odds shows a 56.2% probability and a 5.2% edge.
Best sports bets today summary: Monday, 5/11/2026
As of 10:36PM ET, here are our top bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dream vs. Wings (WNBA) | Dream ML | -129 @ novig | 22.9% | 79.3% |
| Dream vs. Wings (WNBA) | Under 180.5 Points | +113 @ polymarket | 19.6% | 66.6% |
| Dream vs. Wings (WNBA) | Dream -2.5 | -105 @ BetMGM | 19.4% | 70.6% |
| Liberty vs. Fire (WNBA) | Under 173.5 Points | -110 @ espnbet | 8.8% | 61.1% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Rangers (MLB) | Over 8.5 Runs | +113 @ kalshi | 6.7% | 53.7% |
| Lynx vs. Mercury (WNBA) | Mercury ML | -167 @ polymarket | 6.1% | 68.6% |
| Liberty vs. Fire (WNBA) | Fire +12.5 | -108 @ FanDuel | 5.7% | 57.6% |
| Lynx vs. Mercury (WNBA) | Mercury -3.5 | +100 @ polymarket | 5.7% | 55.7% |
| Jodar vs. Tien (Tennis) | Rafael Jodar -4.5 | -105 @ Caesars | 5.7% | 56.9% |
| Lynx vs. Mercury (WNBA) | Under 171.5 Points | -104 @ polymarket | 5.2% | 56.2% |
List of upcoming events to bet on now [5/11/2026]
- Tennis: Casper Ruud vs. Lorenzo Musetti (5:00AM ET, Tuesday)
- Tennis: Dino Prizmic vs. Karen Khachanov (5:00AM ET, Tuesday)
- Tennis: Learner Tien vs. Rafael Jodar (6:10AM ET, Tuesday)
- Tennis: Alexander Zverev vs. Luciano Darderi (8:00AM ET, Tuesday)
- La Liga: Levante vs. Celta Vigo (1:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- La Liga: Elche vs. Real Betis (2:00PM ET, Tuesday)
- La Liga: Atletico Madrid vs. Osasuna (3:30PM ET, Tuesday)
- MLB: Angels vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Tuesday)
- MLB: Nationals vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- MLB: Rockies vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Conclusion
Our best bets are locked and loaded for May 11, 2026, featuring plays such as Dream ML and under 180.5 points also in the Dream vs. Wings matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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