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Belmont vs. Illinois State prediction: Why Belmont is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Belmont vs Illinois State predictions for college basketball Sunday.
Illinois State and Belmont will lock horns in men's college basketball action at CEFCU Arena on Sunday, with tipoff at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model gives Belmont a slight edge with a 53% win probability over Illinois State.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Belmont vs. Illinois State matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.
Belmont vs. Illinois State prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NCAA basketball game between Belmont and Illinois State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Belmont a 53% chance of beating Illinois State. Our predicted final score has Belmont winning 75-74.
According to our model, Illinois State (+1.5) has a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 150.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Belmont vs. Illinois State odds
We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Belmont | Illinois State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (+104) | +1.5 (-118) |
| Moneyline | -110 | +100 |
| Total | o150.5 (-110) | u150.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Belmont vs. Illinois State picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois State +1.5 | -118 |
| Moneyline | Belmont | -110 |
| Total | Under 150.5 | -105 |
According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 150.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Belmont vs. Illinois State game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's men's college basketball game between Illinois State and Belmont at CEFCU Arena is scheduled to commence at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Belmont vs. Illinois State
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: CEFCU Arena
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Conclusion
We predict Belmont, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat Illinois State on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Belmont vs. Illinois State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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