Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [7/22/2026]
Get Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Wednesday.
MLB action continues on Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET as the Baltimore Orioles square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox will start Jake Bennett (5-3, 2.35 ERA), up against Dean Kremer (1-2, 4.15 ERA) for the Orioles.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Orioles vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Red Sox a 58.3% chance of defeating the Orioles.
According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 59.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 55.4% chance of going over,.
Orioles vs. Red Sox odds [7/22/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Orioles | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-168) | -1.5 (+156) |
| Moneyline | +127 | -125 |
| Total | o9 (+100) | u9 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Orioles vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +156 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | -125 |
| Total | Over 9 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Orioles vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Orioles at Fenway Park is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 58.3% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
