Falcons vs. Patriots prediction: New England favored to win in NFL Week 9, 2025

NFL Week 9 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Atlanta Falcons lock horns with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Falcons vs. Patriots game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Falcons vs. Patriots prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Falcons-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Falcons and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Patriots a 67% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 25-20.

According to our model, the Falcons (+5.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 45.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Falcons vs. Patriots odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Falcons	Patriots
Spread	+5.5 (-120)	-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+200	-220
Total	o45.5 (-108)	u45.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Falcons vs. Patriots picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Falcons +5.5	-120
Moneyline	Falcons	+200
Total	Over 45.5	-108

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Falcons to win.

Falcons vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Patriots?

According to our model, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Falcons vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Robinson a 48.7% chance of getting in for six at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is an 11.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	48.7%
Drake London (WR)	32.2%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	29.0%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	24.0%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	23.4%

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	41.2%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	36.4%
Hunter Henry (TE)	34.4%
Kayshon Boutte (WR)	29.5%
Drake Maye (QB)	20.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

Player	First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson (RB)	11.9%
Drake London (WR)	7.0%
Tyler Allgeier (RB)	6.1%
Kyle Pitts (TE)	4.9%
Darnell Mooney (WR)	4.8%

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	9.5%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	8.1%
Hunter Henry (TE)	7.5%
Kayshon Boutte (WR)	6.2%
Drake Maye (QB)	4.1%

Falcons vs Patriots player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 232 passing yards. The Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 233 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Michael Penix (ATL)	232
Drake Maye (NE)	233

Falcons rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Bijan Robinson	69
Tyler Allgeier	28
Michael Penix	9

Patriots rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
TreVeyon Henderson	56
Drake Maye	30
Terrell Jennings	27

Falcons receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Drake London	67
Kyle Pitts	45
Darnell Mooney	44
Bijan Robinson	38
KhaDarel Hodge	16

Patriots receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs	56
Kayshon Boutte	42
Hunter Henry	35
Mack Hollins	27
DeMario Douglas	25

Falcons vs. Patriots game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 9 matchup between the Patriots and Falcons at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 9 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Falcons vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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