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Aston Villa vs. Liverpool prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions for Premier League Friday.
Aston Villa and Liverpool will lock horns in the Premier League at Villa Park on Friday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Premier League model predicts Liverpool as the most likely winner of the Aston Villa vs. Liverpool game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Premier League match between Aston Villa and Liverpool, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 30.9% chance of Aston Villa winning, a 46.0% chance for Liverpool, and a 23.1% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 62% chance of going over, according to our model.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +195 | +130 | +280 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -175 | +138 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool | +130 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -175 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liverpool to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AVL 1-1 LIV | 10.3% |
| AVL 1-2 LIV | 9.2% |
| AVL 0-1 LIV | 7.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 62.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 37.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Premier League matchup between Aston Villa and Liverpool at Villa Park is scheduled to start in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Villa Park
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Aston Villa has a 30.9% win probability on Friday, Liverpool has a 46.0% win probability, and there is a 23.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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