Arsenal vs. Burnley prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/18/2026]

Premier League action continues on Monday at 3:00 PM ET as Burnley faces off with the favored Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven Premier League model predicts Arsenal as the most likely winner of the Arsenal vs. Burnley game.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Arsenal vs. Burnley prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's Premier League match between Arsenal and Burnley, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests an 84.6% chance of Arsenal winning, a 4.4% chance for Burnley, and an 11.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 65% chance of going over, according to our model.

Arsenal vs. Burnley odds

We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Arsenal	Burnley	Draw
-800	+2500	+1000

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-275	+220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arsenal vs. Burnley picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Burnley	+2500
Total Goals	Under 2.5	+220

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Arsenal vs. Burnley: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Arsenal win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
ARS 2-0 BUR	14.1%
ARS 3-0 BUR	13.3%
ARS 1-0 BUR	10%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 38.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 62.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Arsenal vs. Burnley game-day updates and essential details

Monday's Premier League action between Arsenal and Burnley at Emirates Stadium is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Arsenal vs. Burnley
• Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Emirates Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Arsenal has an 84.6% win probability on Monday, Burnley has a 4.4% win probability, and there is an 11.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.