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Read Article Arsenal vs. Burnley prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Arsenal vs Burnley predictions for Premier League Monday.
Premier League action continues on Monday at 3:00 PM ET as Burnley squares off with Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Arsenal as the most likely winner of the Arsenal vs. Burnley game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Arsenal vs. Burnley prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's Premier League match between Arsenal and Burnley, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests an 84.7% chance of Arsenal winning, a 4.5% chance for Burnley, and a 10.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 66% chance of going over, according to our model.
Arsenal vs. Burnley odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Arsenal | Burnley | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -1000 | +2700 | +1100 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -300 | +240 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Arsenal vs. Burnley picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley | +2700 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +240 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Arsenal vs. Burnley: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Arsenal win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ARS 2-0 BUR | 13.6% |
| ARS 3-0 BUR | 13% |
| ARS 5-0 BUR | 9.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 39.3% chance of both Arsenal and Burnley finding the net and a 60.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Arsenal vs. Burnley game-day updates and essential details
Monday's Premier League matchup between Arsenal and Burnley at Emirates Stadium is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Arsenal vs. Burnley
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Arsenal has an 84.7% win probability on Monday, Burnley has a 4.5% win probability, and there is a 10.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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