PGA Golf: Expert Picks, Best Odds, and Predictions for the Bank of Utah Championship 2025

We're back with another week of PGA TOUR betting with our best golf bets and PGA picks from the Dimers golf model as we head to the Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Golf Course in Ivins, Utah.

Teeing off from Thursday, October 23 through Sunday, October 26, the tournament will be held at this course for the second straight year. Known for its striking fairways framed by black lava rock, the course stretches to 7,421 yards this year and features Bentgrass greens.

The 132-player field will compete for a $6 million purse with six OWGR top 50 golfers competing, including  model favorites Alex Noren (No. 17) and Maverick McNealy (No. 19) along with seven 2025 TOUR winners such as Steven Fisk and Karl Vilips.

Putting will likely define the week—while Black Desert ranked among the toughest course for putting inside 10 feet last year, it also saw players hit teh fairways, and thus the greens with ease. Notable stats will be Strokes Gained: Putting, Approach (long range), and Off-the-Tee accuracy.

MORE: Use Dimers' Head-to-Head Matchup Simulator

Hopefully you've tailed along this season or at least utilized our Dimers Pro PGA Predictions model which is on a hot run since the FedExCup Playoffs - most recently cashing  +1400 Tommy Fleetwood winner at the TOUR Championship, hitting a Ben Griffin ladder and Scottie Scheffler win at the Procore Championship and predicting Xander Schauffele's win at +1100 at the Baycurrent classic.

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Who Will Win the 2025 Bank of Utah Championship?

Below are the five most likely winners of the 2025 Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Golf Course in Utah, the fourth stop of the FedExCup Fall schedule.

These win predictions are the result of simulating the tournament over 10,000 times via our AI models, as well as each golfer's odds to finish Top 5, 10 and 20:

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Dimers' Bank of Utah Championship Best Bets

We're looking at the golfers that our model has identified with a higher probability to win than that implied by the sportsbook odds. 

We'll also highlight any standout prop and placement bets for these golfers if we find any appealing value hidden in the Dimers golf predictions.

Maverick McNealy to Win (+1600 on BetRivers)

McNealy holds the most significant edge among the top contenders this week, with a Dimers model win probability of 8.8%, implying fair odds closer to +1025 compared to the market’s +1600.

That creates strong value both in outright and placement markets, where he also projects above fair for Top 5 and Top 10 finishes.

The 29-year-old has quietly built one of the most consistent runs on Tour this season with seven Top 10s, including a T3 at the BMW Championship and a T13 at the Procore Championship to open the FedExCup Fall.

Statistically, he’s among the best putters on Tour (21st in SG: Putting) and ranks 55th Off the Tee, giving him a solid foundation at Black Desert. While his approach play remains average, his distance and putting combination should shorten scoring holes and keep him in contention throughout the week.

Alex Noren to Win (+2000 on BetRivers)

At +2000, Alex Noren is slightly undervalued relative to his 6.3% win probability and +1500 fair odds, especially considering his elite current form.

The 43-year-old Swede has caught fire since returning from injury in May, finishing T7 and T3 in strong PGA TOUR fields before capturing two DP World Tour titles late in the season.

His steady play off the tee and precision putting have him trending as one of the most reliable performers in the fall stretch, and he’s one of just two players in the field with a 50% or greater chance of finishing inside the Top 20.

Sitting 111th in the FedExCup standings, Noren has added motivation to keep his momentum rolling as he chases the top 10, and the combination of accuracy, confidence, and a recent winning habit makes him one of the most appealing mid-range options on the board.

Jason Day to Win (+2800 on BetRivers)

Day’s 4.8% win probability implies a fair price around +2000, giving him modest value at a market line of +2800.

Although he hasn’t teed it up since a T23 at the BMW Championship, the former major champion remains one of the Tour’s most balanced players statistically.

Ranked 61st in putting, with above-average off-the-tee metrics and steady iron play, Day brings a veteran experience that should translate well to Black Desert’s penal rough and complex greens. His volatility has increased slightly this season but his floor remains high, and his ceiling suggests ladder potential in his placements.

If he finds his putting stroke early, Day could easily factor on the weekend.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to Win (+3500 on DraftKings)

Bezuidenhout’s model projection shows 3.8% win probability, with fair odds around +2500, suggesting meaningful value on the +3500 market price.

He’s the only player in this week’s field with back-to-back Top 10s in the FedExCup Fall — T6 at Sanderson Farms and T10 at the Baycurrent Classic — and has notched four Top 20s in his last seven starts worldwide.

Statistically, the South African fits Black Desert’s profile perfectly: he’s 11th in SG: Putting and 29th in Driving Accuracy, thriving on courses that demand precision and a deft touch on quick greens.

Though his distance and approach play are average, his short game and steady form make him one of the most intriguing outright winner candidates in the field.

Billy Horschel to Win (+7000 on BetRivers)

At +7000, Horschel carries the largest discrepancy between market price and projection, with a 2.5% win probability translating to fair odds near +3900.

The 38-year-old returned to action at the Baycurrent Classic after an injury break, where he stumbled out of the gate with a 77 before rebounding with a 66 on Friday to ultimately finish even par for the tournament.

A two-time Top 10 finisher this season — highlighted by a T2 at The Open Championship — Horschel remains one of the premier putters on Tour and tends to heat up quickly once back in rhythm.

Currently sitting outside the Top 100 in FedExCup points, he'll be another highly motivated contender this weekend. If his putter cooperates, his experience and course management give him sneaky upside as a high-variance longshot worth a sprinkle across placement bets.

Other ways to bet on the Bank of Utah Championship with the Dimers model

Beyond outright winners. there are a number of ways to utilize the Dimers' golf predictions to bet on PGA TOUR events.

Top 20 Parlay

Rather than betting on golfers to beat everyone else in the field, consider pairing some of Dimers' value bets or highest-projected finishers to all secure a Top 20 finish. Look for the market including ties to avoid any dead heat reduction.

This week, we project six golfers with at least a 40% probability to all finish Top 20, with Maverick McNealy and Alex Noren eclipsing 50%.

Head to Head Matchup Simulator

Dimers Pros have access to the Head-to-Head Matchup tool which can simulate any matchup between two golfers to help identify value in other markets, like groups and matchups.

For example, Jason Day projects as more likely to beat Rico Hoey over 72 holes at 57.4%, but can be found for +100 odds on DraftKings for a notable edge.

Expert Golf Picks and Predictions for 2025 PGA TOUR

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

• PGA Predictions: Our data-backed predictions for every tournament, including every major.
• Head-to-Head Predictor: Simulate any H2H tournament matchup between golfers
• Dimers' PGA Rankings: Our in-house approach to ranking the World's best golfers
• PGA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the PGA TOUR

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