2025 College Football Playoff Rankings analyzed by computer model reveal most overrated teams

The first College Football Playoff Rankings of 2025 are officially out, and the race for a shot at the National Championship is heating up fast. The CFP Selection Committee released its initial Top 25 on November 4, giving fans and bettors their first real look at how the postseason picture might unfold.

But while the CFP rankings show where each team stands today, our advanced projection models tell a different story. Using data from our advanced analytical model, we can compare the committee’s Top 12 with our probabilities for each team to win the championship, identifying their true Dimers ranking.. This side-by-side breakdown highlights which teams are overvalued, undervalued, or perfectly placed heading into the final stretch of the season.

Whether you’re tracking college football playoff odds, building futures bets, using the rankings for week-to-week college football betting or just debating who really belongs in the Top 12 with your friends, this analysis provides a clearer picture of the true contenders versus the committee favorites.

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)

True Dimers ranking: #1 (30.0% probability, +230 odds)

As defending champs, Ohio State remain at the top in both the committee’s eyes and in the Dimers model. Their unbeaten start and dominant defense continue to validate that status. Unless they slip up, they look like the team to beat, and their sportsbooks odds of +230 are aligned with both rankings.

# 2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

True Dimers ranking: #2 (15.0% probability, +500 odds)

Indiana’s 9-0 run is impressive, and the model agrees they’re the second-most likely team to win the championship so far. But the gap to Ohio State is still sizable in the probability model, with just half the probability as the Buckeyes. Their soft remaining schedule gives them the chance to move up, but the ceiling looks like #2 unless Ohio State falters.

#3 Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)

True Dimers ranking: #7 (7.0% probability, +1100 odds)

Texas A&M earned the #3 spot from the committee, but the model slots them down at 7th. While they’ve done a lot right, the model views them as slightly behind the other contenders, and notably, projects them outside the top four teams that earn a first-round bye in the playoff.

#4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

True Dimers ranking: #3 (12.2% probability, +750 odds)

Alabama’s climb back after an early loss is clearly respected by both the committee and the model. With a strong resume and coaching, they are a legitimate contender. If they finish strong and win the SEC, they might push into the top two, but for now, they sit just behind Ohio State and Indiana.

#5 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

True Dimers ranking: #5 (7.8% probability, +1300 odds)

Georgia sits at #5 in both rankings, remarkably consistent. Their path is slightly more challenging than those ahead of them, and the model reflects that by giving them half the probability to win it all compared to Indiana, but they remain very much in the hunt.

#6 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

True Dimers ranking: #8 (6.1% probability, +2000 odds)

Ole Miss holds the #6 spot with the committee but the model has them 8th. Their lone loss and somewhat uneven wins are reflected in the slightly lower probability. Still, they’re in a strong position and if they win out, they could force their way into serious contention.

#7 BYU Cougars (8-0)

True Dimers ranking: #9 (3.6% probability, +2500 odds)

BYU is undefeated (8-0) and has a lot of upside, but the model and committee are still cautious. The universe is watching whether they can back up wins against elite programs behind electric QB Bear Bachmeier.

#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)

True Dimers ranking: #9 (3.6% probability, +2500 odds)

Texas Tech is ranked 8th by the committee and 9th by the model — very similar placements. The model’s lower win‐probability suggests more skepticism about their ability to run the table or win the whole thing. 

#9 Oregon Ducks (7-1)

True Dimers ranking: #4 (9.1% probability, +1100 odds)

The Ducks are being underrated by the committee (9th) compared to Dimers' model (#4). Their 7-1 record is solid, and the model sees them as a bigger threat than their ranking suggests. Their remaining schedule doesn't feature any games vs. teams ranked inside the Top 20 and could see them climb their way into position for a bye.

#10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)

True Dimers ranking: #6 (7.4% probability, +1100 odds)

Notre Dame gets some respect from both sides, ranked 10th by the committee, and as high as 6th by the Dimers model. That suggests more upside than the committee assigns to Fighting Irish. They have two losses, but if they dominate from here, they could make a push.

#11 Texas Longhorns (7-2)

True Dimers ranking: #10 (2.1% probability, +4500 odds)

Texas appears at #11 in the committee’s list but moves up to #10 by the model’s view. They have talent and upside, but the model assigns them a relatively small chance to win the championship. Their path is difficult with upcoming games vs. Georgia and Texas A&M, and they'll need QB Arch Manning to step up in big spots.

#12 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

True Dimers ranking: #12 (1.0 % probability, +10000 odds)

Oklahoma rounds out the top 12 in the committee’s release. The model sees them as the lowest of the group with championship odds just barely at 1%.

Where's Memphis?

Per the CFP Selection Committee rules, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. Presently, Memphis would take the final spot, despite being ranked outside the full Top 25. Dimers assigns a 0% probability for Memphis to win the Championship.

How to use Dimers' College Football Playoff Predictions

• Using the committee’s ranking gives the official order of how teams are viewed in the moment, while the Dimers model gives a data-backed “true ranking” based on underlying strength and win-all odds.

• When a team’s model ranking is higher than the committee’s (e.g., Oregon) that suggests upside value.

• When a team’s model ranking is lower than the committee’s (e.g., Texas A&M) that suggests maybe the odds or narrative have them slightly overrated vs. the model.

• For betting purposes, aligning model probabilities with futures odds can highlight value bets or narratives worth exploring.

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TL;DR:
The first 2025 College Football Playoff Rankings are out, with Ohio State leading the pack — and the Dimers model agrees. However, several teams’ true chances differ from their committee placement. Alabama and Oregon are notably undervalued by the CFP, while Texas A&M and Ole Miss may be slightly overrated.

Dimers’ data-driven projections reveal who the real contenders are, highlighting value for bettors tracking futures odds and playoff positioning.