Padres vs. Guardians: MLB Prediction & Analysis

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Padres vs. Guardians MLB game on Sunday, August 16, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
MLB
FINAL
MLB sport icon
MLB
Padres
Casey Mize 4-7, 3.38 ERA
5
0
Progressive Field
Guardians
Tanner Bibee 4-12, 3.99 ERA
Progressive Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Padres
0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 5 10 0
Guardians
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Padres
    100%
  • Guardians
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Nathaniel Lowe strikes out swinging.
Quick Box Score
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 F. Tatis RF5020000.4000.800
2 J. Cronenworth 2B5111100.2001.000
3 M. Machado DH3000011.0000.400
4 T. France 1B5000001.0000.000
5 J. Merrill CF3110011.3330.833
6 S. Song 3B0000000.0000.000
7 J. Bowen LF11111001.0005.000
8 X. Bogaerts SS2011020.5001.250
9 F. Fermin C4010000.2500.500
Guardians Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 S. Kwan CF4000000.0000.000
2 A. Martínez LF3000001.0000.000
3 J. Ramírez 3B3020010.6671.417
4 J. Adell RF4000002.0000.000
5 N. Lowe 1B4010001.2500.750
6 R. Hoskins DH2000011.0000.333
7 T. Bazzana 2B3000000.0000.000
8 A. Hedges C3000001.0000.000
9 B. Rocchio SS2000010.0000.333

Padres vs. Guardians: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup overview: MLB Sunday

  • Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
  • Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
  • Time: 1:40PM ET
  • Venue: Progressive Field

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Padres (-1.5, +155), Guardians (+1.5, -156)
  • Moneyline: Padres -105, Guardians +108
  • Total (Over/Under): 8 runs (-105/-105)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Padres: 50.0%
  • Guardians: 50.0%

Dimers' predictive MLB model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 50.0%, while the Guardians have a win probability of 50.0%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Padres are more likely to beat the Guardians in the MLB game at Progressive Field on Sunday. Discover the best run line, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Padres vs. Guardians predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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