Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Friday has +800 odds [9/18/2026]

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 26.8% probability
• Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): 21.0%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 19.2%
• Eugenio Suárez (Reds): 19.1%
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 18.9%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 18.7%
• Mike Trout (Angels): 18.4%
• Dominic Canzone (Mariners): 17.7%
• Josh Naylor (Mariners): 17.5%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.5%

Our analysis shows Raleigh leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.8% chance to go yard, followed by Julio Rodríguez (21.0%) and Jo Adell (19.2%).

Eugenio Suárez and Aaron Judge are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [9/18/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Josh Naylor (Mariners) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17.5%
• Odds: +800
• Edge: 6.4%
• Pitching matchup: Gabriel Hughes
• More game projections: Mariners vs. Rockies prediction (8:10 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Seattle slugger Josh Naylor rates as a value play at +800 with BetRivers, showing a 6.4% edge.

With Gabriel Hughes on the mound for the Rockies, the data supports Naylor as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 17 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 18, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Jo Adell projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Josh Naylor who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.4% edge at +800 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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