Sep 19, 2026
Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/19/2026]
Read Article Royals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 62.0% win probability for the Pirates at PNC Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Kansas City Royals in MLB action at PNC Park on Friday, commencing at 6:40 PM ET.
Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.78 ERA) will get the ball for the Pirates, pitting him against Randy Dobnak (3-4, 2.73 ERA) for the Royals.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Pirates as the most likely winner in this Royals vs. Pirates prediction.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Paul Skenes' pitching projections.
Royals vs. Pirates prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Royals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 62.0% chance of beating the Royals. According to our model, the Royals (+1.5) have a 55.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 50.3% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Royals +1.5 (-127) / Pirates -1.5 (+122)
- Moneyline: Royals +170, Pirates -178
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-105)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ 45¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Royals @ 37¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Royals to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Royals at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 62.0% win probability, will likely beat the Royals in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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