The second major of the golf season is here, and so are the final predictive outputs from Dimers.com. After factoring in tee times, updated betting trends, and Thursday's weather forecast, we’ve re-run our 10,000 tournament simulations for the
—giving golf fans one last look at how the data views this elite field before the first shots are struck.
Scottie Scheffler remains the frontrunner, but Rory McIlroy has held steady in second despite a minor dip in win probability since
our early predictions. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa has jumped slightly ahead of Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas closes out the top five with his win and top-10 probabilities holding firm.
2025 PGA Championship Predictions: Can Rory Go Back-to-Back?
Scottie Scheffler enters Thursday’s opening round with a slightly lower win projection than earlier this week, but still leads all players with a 17.8% chance to win, according to the final round of simulations from Dimers.com. Rory McIlroy follows at 7.9%, with Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas rounding out the top five.
| Player |
Win Probability |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
17.8% |
| Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 |
7.9% |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 |
4.6% |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 |
4.3% |
| Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 |
3.8% |
Bryson DeChambeau is one of the top chances to win this week according to Dimers' in-house model. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Top-10 Finish Probabilities
Scheffler's consistency continues to set him apart, with a 61.1% chance to place inside the top 10—up half a point from the earlier week simulations. McIlroy stays at 42.8%, while DeChambeau edges slightly ahead of Morikawa. Thomas closes strong with a 28.3% top-10 finish projection.
| Player |
Top 10 Prob. |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
61.1% |
| Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 |
42.8% |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 |
30.4% |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 |
29.8% |
| Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 |
28.3% |
Scottie Scheffler warms up on the driving range before a practice round for the PGA Championship golf tournament at the Quail Hollow Club, Monday, May 12, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Full win projections, top-20 edges, and matchup insights are available to
Dimers Pro
users.
Latest Bet365 Odds for the 2025 PGA Championship
In the betting markets at
Bet365, McIlroy and Scheffler are nearly even, though Rory is still listed as a slight favorite. The odds on DeChambeau and Thomas have tightened a bit since the start of the week, while Collin Morikawa's number has lengthened slightly.
| Player |
Win Odds |
Top 10 Odds |
| Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 |
+470 |
-180 |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
+525 |
-160 |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 |
+800 |
-115 |
| Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 |
+1900 |
+180 |
| Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 |
+1900 |
+180 |
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PGA Championship Tee Times for Thursday
1st Tee
- 1:03 PM //
Tyrrell Hatton,
Will Zalatoris,
Adam Scott
- 1:14 PM //
Justin Thomas,
Dustin Johnson,
Collin Morikawa
- 1:25 PM //
Jordan Spieth,
Patrick Reed,
Ludvig Åberg
- 1:36 PM //
Hideki Matsuyama,
Wyndham Clark,
Tom Kim
- 1:47 PM //
Bryson DeChambeau,
Viktor Hovland,
Gary Woodland
10th Tee
- 7:38 AM //
Brooks Koepka,
Rickie Fowler,
Shane Lowry
- 7:49 AM //
Phil Mickelson,
Tommy Fleetwood,
Jason Day
- 8:00 AM //
Jon Rahm,
Patrick Cantlay,
Matt Fitzpatrick
- 8:11 AM //
Corey Conners,
Min Woo Lee,
Rasmus Højgaard
- 8:22 AM //
Rory McIlroy,
Xander Schauffele,
Scottie Scheffler
Expect drama right out of the gate with multiple power pairings including Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau spread throughout the morning and afternoon waves in the
.
Betting Guides for the PGA Championship
Final Word: McIlroy, Scheffler Lead the Way
Rory McIlroy looks to go back-to-back in majors just one month after winning The Masters, while Scheffler is seeking his first major title outside of Augusta. Both players sit comfortably ahead of the rest in our final simulation run—but big names like Morikawa, Bryson, and Thomas could easily emerge with a strong opening round.
Follow along all week, with updated projections each round, a
LIV vs. PGA parlay, and much more to come!
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