Final 2025 PGA Championship Predictions: Plus, Closing Odds and Today's Tee Times

The second major of the golf season is here, and so are the final predictive outputs from Dimers.com. After factoring in tee times, updated betting trends, and Thursday's weather forecast, we’ve re-run our 10,000 tournament simulations for the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow—giving golf fans one last look at how the data views this elite field before the first shots are struck.

Scottie Scheffler remains the frontrunner, but Rory McIlroy has held steady in second despite a minor dip in win probability since our early predictions. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa has jumped slightly ahead of Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas closes out the top five with his win and top-10 probabilities holding firm.

2025 PGA Championship Predictions: Can Rory Go Back-to-Back?

Scottie Scheffler enters Thursday’s opening round with a slightly lower win projection than earlier this week, but still leads all players with a 17.8% chance to win, according to the final round of simulations from Dimers.com. Rory McIlroy follows at 7.9%, with Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas rounding out the top five.

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the top chances to win this week according to Dimers' in-house model. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Top-10 Finish Probabilities

Scheffler's consistency continues to set him apart, with a 61.1% chance to place inside the top 10—up half a point from the earlier week simulations. McIlroy stays at 42.8%, while DeChambeau edges slightly ahead of Morikawa. Thomas closes strong with a 28.3% top-10 finish projection.

Scottie Scheffler warms up on the driving range before a practice round for the PGA Championship golf tournament at the Quail Hollow Club, Monday, May 12, 2025, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Full win projections, top-20 edges, and matchup insights are available to Dimers Pro users.

Latest Bet365 Odds for the 2025 PGA Championship

In the betting markets at Bet365, McIlroy and Scheffler are nearly even, though Rory is still listed as a slight favorite. The odds on DeChambeau and Thomas have tightened a bit since the start of the week, while Collin Morikawa's number has lengthened slightly.

Sports Promo

4.6/5

Bet $5 & Get $150

Welcome Offer

Copy

Get Bonus

PGA Championship Tee Times for Thursday

1st Tee

• 1:03 PM // Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott
• 1:14 PM // Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa
• 1:25 PM // Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Ludvig Åberg
• 1:36 PM // Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim
• 1:47 PM // Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Gary Woodland

10th Tee

• 7:38 AM // Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry
• 7:49 AM // Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day
• 8:00 AM // Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick
• 8:11 AM // Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard
• 8:22 AM // Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler

Expect drama right out of the gate with multiple power pairings including Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau spread throughout the morning and afternoon waves in the Thursday tee times at the PGA.

Betting Guides for the PGA Championship

• Full player predictions: win and top-10 probabilities for the entire field
• Best bets: the top +EV plays to make on this week
• H2H comparison tool: pick smarter matchups for parlays and props
• World rankings: full golf rankings for both PGA and LIV players
• Bet365 bonus code: details on how to claim a $150 bonus for new users

Final Word: McIlroy, Scheffler Lead the Way

Rory McIlroy looks to go back-to-back in majors just one month after winning The Masters, while Scheffler is seeking his first major title outside of Augusta. Both players sit comfortably ahead of the rest in our final simulation run—but big names like Morikawa, Bryson, and Thomas could easily emerge with a strong opening round.

Follow along all week, with updated projections each round, a LIV vs. PGA parlay, and much more to come!

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Damien Souness as part of our fact-checking process.