runs two very different games inside one app. Over the first two installments of this series we broke down how they compare and then went deep on the fantasy side with Pick'em and Champions. Now for the other half of the app: Underdog Predict, the prediction market. With college football's Week 0 arriving Saturday, August 29 and the NFL's Super Bowl LX rematch a week and a half out, this is the format changing how fans engage with game outcomes.
What Is Underdog Predict?
Underdog Predict—also branded Underdog Exchange—is a prediction market. Instead of entering a contest or placing a bet against a house, you trade event contracts: yes/no shares in a specific outcome, bought and sold in a marketplace. The question can be as simple as "Will TCU win?" and the contract pays out if the answer turns out to be yes.
That marketplace structure is the whole difference. A contract has a live price, that price moves as the game and the money move, and you are trading against other participants rather than a fixed line set by a book.
How Underdog Prediction-Market Pricing Works:
Every contract on a prediction market trades between 1 cent and 99 cents, and the price is the market's read on the probability of the outcome. Each winning contract settles at exactly $1.00. That single rule drives all the math:
- Buy a contract at 60¢, and if it hits you collect $1.00—a 40¢ profit. If it misses, you lose the 60¢.
- The cheaper the contract, the bigger the payout if it lands: a 27¢ underdog returns 73¢ of profit per contract.
- The price is the implied probability. A contract at 73¢ is the market saying "about a 73% chance."
This is where a model becomes useful. Dimers' projection for Saturday's opener gives TCU a 73% chance to beat North Carolina. In a prediction market, that 73% corresponds to a contract priced near 73¢. The actual price you see on Underdog is set by the market and moves in real time; our model's probability is a sharp reference point for judging whether that price looks like value.
The Three Markets You'll Trade: Moneyline, Spread and Total
Prediction markets express the same three angles football fans already know, just as tradeable contracts. Using Dimers' numbers for North Carolina vs. TCU (Sat, Aug 29, 12:00 PM ET):
- Moneyline (who wins): our model has TCU at 73% and North Carolina at 27%. The favorite's contract trades near the top of the range; the underdog's trades cheap, for a bigger payout if it hits.
- Spread (who covers): at TCU -7.5, the model has the cover almost a coin flip—North Carolina 48% to cover the points, TCU 52%—so spread contracts on both sides sit near the middle of the price range.
- Total (over/under): with the total around 48, Dimers leans slightly under (54% under, 46% over), which would show up as an under contract priced a touch above the over.
Every market you'll see on sports prediction markets is a variation of these three, expressed as a yes/no contract with a price.
Buying and Selling: The Cash-Out Advantage
The feature that most separates Predict from a fixed fantasy entry is that you can sell your position before the event ends. Buy TCU at 73¢, and if the Horned Frogs jump out to an early two-score lead, the contract's price climbs toward 99¢—and you can sell to lock in the profit rather than sweating the final whistle. It cuts the other way too: if the game turns, you can sell to limit the loss instead of riding a contract to zero. A daily fantasy entry locks at kickoff; a Predict contract stays liquid.
Who Regulates Underdog Predict?
This is the part that makes Predict structurally different from a sportsbook. Its markets are offered through UDM, LLC, a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and a member of the National Futures Association. Trades are placed on designated contract markets (DCMs)—federally regulated exchanges—including CDNA (Crypto.com Derivatives North America), the Aristotle Exchange (UDX), and Kalshi. Customer funds are held in segregated accounts under CFTC rules, the same framework that governs futures trading.
Because it operates under that federal structure rather than as a state-licensed sportsbook, Underdog Predict is available to U.S. residents 18 and older across a broader footprint than the fantasy contests. The legal picture for sports event contracts is still evolving at the state level, so treat this as the regulatory structure Underdog operates under rather than settled law—we will dig into exactly why that matters, and where it lets you trade games you otherwise couldn't, in the next installment.
Trading Week 0: A Worked Example
Put it together on North Carolina vs. TCU. If you share the model's read that TCU (73%) wins comfortably, the moneyline contract is the straightforward position—near 73¢, paying out to $1.00 if the Horned Frogs win. If you think the model is light on North Carolina keeping it close, the spread contract on the Tar Heels (+7.5), sitting near a coin flip, offers a bigger payout for a smaller outlay. And because you can sell, you don't have to hold any of it to the final whistle. For the full slate, see our college football predictions and NFL predictions.
It's the same logic that powers other prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket—Underdog's edge is putting it in the same app as your fantasy lineups.
Where Can You Use Underdog Predict?
Because Predict runs under a federal framework, it reaches a broader set of states than Underdog Fantasy—which is why you may be able to trade Predict markets even where the Pick'em contests are limited. You must be 18 or older, with higher minimums in a few states. The full state-by-state breakdown, and the legal reasoning behind it, is the subject of our next installment.
Underdog Predict FAQ:
What Is Underdog Predict?
A prediction market (also called Underdog Exchange) where you trade event contracts on outcomes like the winner, spread and total, buying and selling at a live price rather than entering a fixed contest.
How Are Contracts Priced?
Between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price equal to the implied probability. Every winning contract settles at $1.00.
Can You Sell Before the Game Ends?
Yes. You can sell a contract at any time the market is open to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
Is Underdog Predict a Sportsbook?
Underdog positions it as a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange rather than a sportsbook, with trades cleared on designated contract markets. The legal status of sports event contracts is still evolving.
Underdog Predict reduces a football game to its cleanest form: a price between 1¢ and 99¢ that reflects a probability, a $1.00 payout if you're right, and the freedom to sell whenever you like. Learn to read the price against a sharp model, and you have a genuinely new way to play the season. and enter Underdog promo code DIMERS to claim the latest new-user sign-up bonuses.
Coming up next in the Underdog Football Playbook: the legal guide—where you can use Underdog, and why prediction markets are available where in-state college betting often isn't. (.)
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Trading decisions and their consequences are your sole responsibility. Nothing on constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. UDX is subject to CFTC regulatory oversight. Promotion issued by affiliate.
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