College football is already knocking: Week 0 kicks off
Saturday, August 29, when North Carolina and TCU open the season in Dublin, Ireland. A week later the marquee non-conference slate arrives, and on
Wednesday, September 9
the NFL raises the curtain with a Super Bowl LX rematch, the Seahawks hosting the Patriots at Lumen Field. If you are planning to play the season through
, the first thing to understand is that it is not one product but two very different games living inside the same app.
This guide is the opening installment of our week-long Underdog Football Playbook. Before we get into lineups, prices and game-day strategy in the days ahead, here is the foundation: what Underdog actually is, how its two sides work, and how you would think about the season's opening games through each one.
What Is Underdog?
Check legal Underdog Sports states here.
Underdog built its name on daily fantasy sports, but today the app splits into two distinct products that share a single login:
- Underdog Fantasy—the daily fantasy side, where you build lineups and make picks based on player projections.
- Underdog Predict—a prediction market (also branded Underdog Exchange) where you trade contracts on real-world outcomes.
They look similar on the surface (both are about reading a football game correctly) but underneath they are governed by different rules, regulated by different bodies, and played in completely different ways. Getting the distinction straight is the difference between using the app well and being confused by it.
Underdog Fantasy: How the Daily Fantasy Side Works
The Fantasy side is a set of
daily fantasy contests. The formats you will see most during football season are:
- Pick'em—you choose whether a player will go over or under a projected stat line (passing yards, receptions, rushing yards) and combine several picks into one entry.
- Champions—a lineup-style contest where your selections compete against other entrants for a share of the prize pool.
- Best Ball—you draft a roster once and it is locked for the season; Underdog automatically starts your highest-scoring eligible players each week, with no waivers, trades or lineup management.
- Drafts and Battle Royale—snake-draft contests, from single-day slates to season-long tournaments.
A few house rules matter. Lineups must include players from at least two different teams. Contests carry "lobby badges" that tell you what you are entering—Guaranteed, Multi-entry, Beginner, Expert and more—and Underdog separates newer players from Experienced and Highly Experienced ones, so beginner-only contests stay beginner-only. Scoring uses official league statistics, and final results are confirmed within 72 hours of the last game of the week.
Crucially, the Fantasy side is
state-regulated daily fantasy. It is not available everywhere, and some formats (Pick'em in particular) are restricted in more states than others. We will map that out in detail later this week.
Underdog Predict: How the Prediction Market Works
The Predict side is a different animal entirely. Instead of building a lineup, you trade
event contracts
on
Underdog Predict, essentially yes/no shares in an outcome. The mechanics are the same across all
prediction markets:
- Every contract is priced between
1 cent and 99 cents, and the price is the market's read on the probability of that outcome. A contract at 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance.
- Each winning contract settles at
$1.00. Buy at 60¢, and you make 40¢ of profit if it hits—and lose your 60¢ if it does not.
- You can
sell your position early. If you buy a team to win and they jump out to a big lead, the contract's price rises and you can lock in profit before the final whistle rather than waiting it out.
- Markets typically cover the same three angles football fans already know—who wins (moneyline), the spread, and the total (over/under)—expressed as tradeable contracts.
The regulatory structure is what sets Predict apart from a sportsbook. Its markets are offered through UDM, LLC, a
CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), with trades cleared on designated contract markets (DCMs)—the same category of federally regulated venue that includes exchanges like
Kalshi. Because it operates under that federal framework rather than as a state-licensed sportsbook, Predict is available to U.S. residents 18 and older across a broader footprint than the Fantasy contests. (The legal picture for sports event contracts is still evolving, so treat that as Underdog's regulatory positioning rather than settled law—more on the legal angle later in this series.)
Underdog Fantasy Vs. Underdog Predict: The Key Differences
Here is the side-by-side that clears up most of the confusion:
|
Underdog Fantasy |
Underdog Predict |
| Format |
DFS contests (Pick'em, Champions, Best Ball, Drafts) |
Event-contract marketplace (prediction market) |
| What you do |
Build lineups and make picks on player projections |
Buy and sell contracts on game outcomes |
| Pricing |
Pay an entry fee for a shot at a payout |
Contracts priced 1¢–99¢; each pays $1 if correct |
| Who you play |
Other entrants and the projections |
The market—other traders |
| Exit early? |
No—entries lock at contest start |
Yes—sell your position before the event ends |
| Regulator |
State daily-fantasy regulators |
CFTC (via an FCM; trades clear on DCMs) |
| Availability |
Varies by state; restricted in several |
U.S. residents 18+; broader footprint |
One more wrinkle worth knowing: Underdog also lets you combine the two. A "Combo" entry pairs a Fantasy selection with a Prediction Market selection in a single ticket—a bridge between the two products we will come back to later in the week.
The cleanest way to understand the two sides is to lay the season's opening games over them, using
Dimers' predictions, each built from 10,000 game simulations.
Week 0: North Carolina Vs. TCU (Sat, Aug 29, 12:00 PM ET, Dublin)
The season opener at Aviva Stadium is a clear favorite spot. Our model gives
TCU a 73% chance to win, projecting a 28-20 final, with the Horned Frogs favored by 7.5. On the
Fantasy
side, that outlook shapes which player projections you'd target in a Pick'em or Champions lineup. On the
Predict
side, a 73% probability is exactly what a prediction market translates into a price: a favorite like TCU would trade toward the high end of the 1¢–99¢ range, while an underdog like North Carolina (27%) would trade much cheaper—a smaller outlay for a bigger payout if they pull the upset.
Week 1: Baylor Vs. Auburn and Western Michigan Vs. Michigan (Sat, Sep 5)
The following Saturday brings two useful contrasts.
Baylor vs. Auburn
at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (3:30 PM ET) is a tighter game—Dimers gives Auburn a 60% edge and projects 31-27—the kind of near-coin-flip where a Predict contract sits closer to the middle of the price range and small shifts in the game swing it hard.
Western Michigan at Michigan
(7:30 PM ET) is the opposite: our model gives Michigan a 97% win probability in a projected 37-10 blowout. A heavy favorite like that trades near the very top of the range, where there is little profit left to squeeze—a good illustration of why the price, not just the pick, is what matters in a prediction market.
The NFL Opener: Seahawks Vs. Patriots (Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET)
The season's headline act is a Super Bowl LX rematch. Dimers' model favors the
Seahawks at 61%
to win at Lumen Field, projecting a 24-21 final with Seattle laying 4.5. It is the perfect first real test of both products: a player-prop Pick'em on the Fantasy side, or a moneyline, spread or total contract on the Predict side—and, if you want, a Combo that ties the two together. For the full breakdown, see our
NFL predictions.
Where Can You Use Underdog?
Eligibility is the piece most people get wrong, precisely because the two products follow different rules.
Underdog Fantasy
is state-regulated daily fantasy: it is unavailable in a number of states, and Pick'em specifically is offered in fewer states than the draft contests.
Underdog Predict, operating under a federal framework, reaches a broader set of states, which is why you may be able to trade Predict markets even where the Fantasy contests are limited.
On age: you must be
18 or older
in most places, with higher minimums in a few states (19+ in Alabama and Nebraska; 21+ in Arizona, Massachusetts and Virginia). We will publish a full state-by-state eligibility guide—and dig into the legal reasons prediction markets are available where in-state college betting often isn't—later this week.
Underdog Promo Code DIMERS secures a huge package of Prediction Market promos for NFL in 2026.
What Is the Difference Between Underdog Fantasy and Underdog Predict?
Fantasy is a daily fantasy product built on lineups and picks (Pick'em, Champions, Best Ball, Drafts). Predict is a prediction market where you trade contracts on outcomes like the winner, spread and total. Both live in the same app under one login.
Is Underdog Predict the Same As Sports Betting?
Underdog positions Predict as a federally regulated event-contract exchange rather than a sportsbook, offered through a CFTC-registered FCM with trades cleared on designated contract markets. The legal status of sports event contracts is still evolving, so that framing reflects the regulatory structure rather than settled law.
Do You Need Two Accounts?
No. One universal Underdog sign-up gives you access to both the Fantasy contests and the Predict markets once your account is verified.
How Much Does a Prediction-Market Contract Cost?
Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price roughly equal to the implied probability of the outcome. Each winning contract settles at $1.00.
Underdog is really two products in one app: a state-regulated daily fantasy game and a federally regulated prediction market, sharing a single sign-up. Fantasy is about building the right lineup; Predict is about trading the right price. With Week 0 arriving Saturday and the NFL's Super Bowl LX rematch a few days behind it, now is the moment to learn both.
and enter
Underdog promo code DIMERS
to claim the latest new-user sign-up bonuses, then follow along with the rest of this series.
Coming up next in the Underdog Football Playbook: a deep dive into Underdog Pick'em and Champions—how to actually build a football lineup. (Read Day 2.)
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