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Expert Picks: Analyzing the Bet365 Javonte Williams +550 First TD Prop for Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football features a critical NFC showdown as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. In a game expected to be a high-scoring battle, on Cowboys running back, Javonte Williams, to score the game's first touchdown.
Javonte Williams leads the Cowboys with 10 total touchdowns this season and is the statistical favorite on the team to score first. The offer a significant high-payout opportunity for bettors backing the Dallas offense.
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Bet365 Prop: Javonte Williams First Touchdown Scorer
The prop targets the Cowboys' lead running back to break the plane before any other player in the game.
- The Player Prop: Javonte Williams First Touchdown Scorer
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Odds: +550
- Model Probability Note: Dimers' simulations give Javonte Williams the highest probability (10.6%) of scoring the first touchdown among all Cowboys players.
- Performance Note: Williams leads the Cowboys with 10 total touchdowns this season (8 rushing, 2 receiving).
Game Details: Cowboys vs. Lions (Thursday Night Football)
Key information on the Cowboys vs. Lions matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.
- Teams: Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
- Location: Ford Field
- Spread: Cowboys +3.5 (-120) | Lions -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +150 | Lions -174
- Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-120/-102)
The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Expert Prediction: Cowboys vs. Lions
Using state-of-the-art data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at Dimers have executed 10,000 simulations of Thursday's matchup.
- Model Win Probability: The Lions are more likely to defeat the Cowboys, with a 61% chance of winning the game.
- Top Value Bet: Our top pick is to bet on Under 54.5 points (-102), which has a 53% chance of staying under.
- Score Prediction: Dimers’ projected final score for the game is: Lions 28, Cowboys 25.
NFL Player Props: Touchdown and Yardage Leaders
Jahmyr Gibbs is the overall favorite to score first, but Williams leads the Dallas offense in first touchdown probability.
Dallas Cowboys Player Projections
First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Javonte Williams: 10.6% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 8.3% probability
- George Pickens: 7.9% probability
Anytime Touchdown Predictions
- Javonte Williams: 51.7% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 43.4% probability
- George Pickens: 41.8% probability
Projected Box Score Leaders
- QB Passing Yards: Dak Prescott, 277 yards
- Receiving Yards: CeeDee Lamb, 87 yards
- Rushing Yards: Javonte Williams, 71 yards
Detroit Lions Player Projections
First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 15.8% probability
- Jameson Williams: 9.1% probability
- David Montgomery: 9.0% probability
Anytime Touchdown Predictions
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 66.5% probability
- Jameson Williams: 46.8% probability
- David Montgomery: 46.3% probability
Projected Box Score Leaders
- QB Passing Yards: Jared Goff, 251 yards
- Receiving Yards: Jameson Williams, 83 yards
- Rushing Yards: Jahmyr Gibbs, 87 yards
Cowboys vs. Lions Best Bet
The model's top play on the standard market is the Under 54.5 points (-102). However, for a high-value prop, the is an excellent choice. Williams is the statistical favorite for the Cowboys to score first, and his early-drive volume and goal-line opportunities make the generous +550 odds appealing in a potentially high-scoring game.
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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Ryan Leaver as part of our fact-checking process.
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