Week 12 delivers a marquee AFC matchup as the Indianapolis Colts travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Ahead of Sunday’s 1 p.m. kickoff, Bet365 is offering a touchdown-scoring prop on Jonathan Taylor, who is priced at +350 in the screenshot provided. With Taylor accounting for steady red-zone usage and a 30% hit rate over recent games, this Bet365 prop lines up cleanly with how Indianapolis is likely to attack Kansas City on the ground.
Bet365’s market features Jonathan Taylor listed at +350 to score a touchdown on Sunday.
Jonathan Taylor: To Score a Touchdown
Odds: +350 • Payout example: A $10 wager returns $45 total if the prop hits
Taylor remains Indianapolis’ most trusted scoring option in short-yardage situations, and his usage inside the 10-yard line makes this a logical play for bettors looking for value outside the standard side or total.
Odds reflect what was shown at the time of screenshot and are subject to change.
Teams: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025 Kickoff: 1 p.m. EST Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Spread: Colts +3.5 (-115) | Chiefs -3.5 (-102) Moneyline: Colts +156 | Chiefs -185 Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-105)
Dimers simulated this matchup 10,000 times and projects Kansas City as the more likely winner, giving the Chiefs a 62% chance of winning at home.
The model also projects a 53% probability that Sunday’s matchup goes over the 49.5 total, with both offenses expected to trade efficient drives behind Patrick Mahomes and Daniel Jones.
Dimers’ best bet for Week 12 is Over 49.5 (-110), supported by strong pass-game projections on both sides and the potential for sustained scoring in both halves.
The Bet365 Jonathan Taylor touchdown prop (+350) also correlates well with this game script, as higher scoring environments naturally increase touchdown opportunities for primary ball carriers.
Projected final score: Chiefs 26, Colts 23.
This projection reflects Kansas City’s offensive edge while also acknowledging Indianapolis’ ability to keep pace.
Indianapolis Colts First touchdown scorer probabilities • Jonathan Taylor: 17.2% • Tyler Warren: 5.0% • Michael Pittman: 4.6%
Anytime touchdown probabilities • Jonathan Taylor: 67.9% • Tyler Warren: 28.5% • Michael Pittman: 26.5%
Projected leaders • Passing: Daniel Jones – 243 yards • Receiving: Alec Pierce – 60 yards • Rushing: Jonathan Taylor – 85 yards
Kansas City Chiefs First touchdown scorer probabilities • Kareem Hunt: 11.4% • Rashee Rice: 9.3% • Travis Kelce: 6.8%
Anytime touchdown probabilities • Kareem Hunt: 52.2% • Rashee Rice: 45.1% • Travis Kelce: 35.6%
Projected leaders • Passing: Patrick Mahomes – 273 yards • Receiving: Rashee Rice – 77 yards • Rushing: Kareem Hunt – 55 yards
The Colts and Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST. All predictions and betting insights in this preview come from 10,000 data-backed simulations run by Dimers and are accurate as of publication, helping bettors make more informed choices across the NFL board.
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