Christmas night
features a critical divisional showdown
as the Denver Broncos travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
on Broncos rookie sensation RJ Harvey to open the scoring at +325 odds.
Harvey has completely taken over the lead role in the Denver backfield, recording five rushing touchdowns since Week 13 alone. Facing a Kansas City team starting third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun, the Broncos are expected to lean heavily on Harvey to establish an early lead. With a league-high
15.5% probability
to find the end zone first, Harvey is the primary candidate for an early holiday celebration at Arrowhead.
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Bet365 Prop: RJ Harvey First Touchdown Scorer (+325)
This prop targets the dynamic rookie to be the first player from either team to record a touchdown in the game.
- The Player Prop: RJ Harvey First Touchdown Scorer
- Team: Denver Broncos
- Odds: +325
- Implied Probability: These odds suggest a 23.5% chance of occurring.
- Scoring Streak: Harvey has scored at least one touchdown in four consecutive games (Week 13–16).
- Red Zone Dominance: He leads the Broncos in red zone carries and total touchdowns (11) since taking over as the RB1.
Game Details: Broncos Vs. Chiefs (Christmas Day)
The key information for the Week 17 holiday clash at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
- Teams: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Spread: Broncos -13.5 (-105) | Chiefs +13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Broncos -1000 | Chiefs +750
- Total: Over/Under 36.5 (-108/-110)
The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Expert Prediction: Broncos Vs. Chiefs
Leveraging advanced algorithms and computer power, experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Thursday's game.
- Model Win Probability: The Broncos are heavy favorites at Arrowhead, with a
93% chance of victory.
- Top Value Bet: Our top pick for Christmas night is to bet on the
Broncos moneyline (-1000).
- Spread Analysis: Dimers predicts that the
Chiefs (+13.5)
have a 53% chance of covering the large spread.
Score Prediction for Broncos Vs. Chiefs
NFL Player Props: Christmas Night
Harvey and Broncos' wide receiver Courtland Sutton lead the field in touchdown scoring probabilities for this matchup.
First Touchdown Scorer Probability
- RJ Harvey (DEN): 15.5% probability (+325 odds)
- Courtland Sutton (DEN): 10.2% probability (+750 odds)
- Troy Franklin (DEN): 6.7% probability (+1000 odds)
- Isiah Pacheco (KC): 4.5% probability (+1500 odds)
Projected Box Score Leaders
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (239 pass yds), Courtland Sutton (65 rec yds), RJ Harvey (54 rush yds)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Oladokun (164 pass yds), Travis Kelce (40 rec yds), Isiah Pacheco (40 rush yds)
Broncos Vs. Chiefs Best Prop Bet
While the moneyline is the safest play, the
is the standout prop for Christmas. Harvey has become the centerpiece of Sean Payton's offense, averaging 19 fantasy points per game since the bye week. With the Chiefs missing Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew, Denver's defense should provide frequent short fields for Harvey to capitalize on and find the end zone early.
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