After a windy and unpredictable opening round at Quail Hollow, the leaderboard is already starting to shift—and so are the odds. Our data team at
Dimers.com
has re-run the simulations using Round 1 results, updated weather forecasts, and the latest betting markets from Bet365.
As he was in our
pre-round 1 predictions, Scottie Scheffler remains the overall favorite, but a surging group of contenders—led by Bryson DeChambeau, Aaron Rai, and Jon Rahm—have closed the gap in both win probability and outright market value.
Round 2 Outlook: Who’s Trending Up?
Our model saw major swings in win probability following Thursday's action. Bryson DeChambeau posted a -7 opening round to rocket into solo first place and saw a +5% bump in projected win equity. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa dropped slightly after a modest -1 start, while Scottie Scheffler held firm at -2.
| Player |
Round 1 Score |
Probability |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
-2 |
22.0% (+4%) |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 |
-3 |
5.5% (+4%) |
| Aaron Rai 🏴 |
-4 |
5.0% (+4%) |
| Jhonattan Vegas 🇻🇪 |
-7 |
4.6% (+5%) |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 |
-1 |
4.2% (-0%) |
Updated Top-10 Finish Probabilities
Aaron Rai and Jhonattan Vegas each gained more than 20% in top-10 probability overnight, thanks to elite scoring and strong ball-striking metrics in Round 1. Scottie Scheffler still leads this category comfortably.
| Player |
Round 1 Score |
Probability |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
-2 |
67.5% (+6%) |
| Aaron Rai 🏴 |
-4 |
36.0% (+23%) |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 |
-3 |
35.9% (+18%) |
| Jhonattan Vegas 🇻🇪 |
-7 |
32.6% (+30%) |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 |
-1 |
32.5% (+3%) |
Bet365 Odds to Win and Top 10 (Updated)
While Scottie Scheffler holds the favorite tag at +375 with
Bet365, the real movement in the market has come in the form of sharp interest in Bryson DeChambeau (+1100) and Tyrrell Hatton (+1600). Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland sit deeper at +2800.
| Player |
To Win |
Top 10 |
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 |
+375 |
-275 |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 |
+1100 |
+137 |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 |
+1600 |
+140 |
| Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 |
+2000 |
+162 |
| Ludvig Åberg 🇸🇪 |
+2200 |
+200 |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 |
+2500 |
+230 |
| Aaron Rai 🏴 |
+2800 |
+200 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 |
+2800 |
+187 |
| Jhonattan Vegas 🇻🇪 |
+2800 |
+187 |
| Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪 |
+2800 |
+280 |
Make the most of these odds by signing up to
Bet365 with bonus code DIMERS.
Friday Tee Times
The key
tee times for today's play at Quail Hollow
have been released, with a good mix of morning and afternoon play.
1st Tee
- 1:03 PM –
Brooks Koepka,
Rickie Fowler,
Shane Lowry
- 1:14 PM –
Phil Mickelson,
Tommy Fleetwood,
Jason Day
- 1:25 PM –
Jon Rahm,
Patrick Cantlay,
Matt Fitzpatrick
- 1:36 PM –
Corey Conners,
Min Woo Lee,
Rasmus Højgaard
- 1:47 PM –
Rory McIlroy,
Xander Schauffele,
Scottie Scheffler
10th Tee
- 7:38 AM –
Tyrrell Hatton,
Will Zalatoris,
Adam Scott
- 7:49 AM –
Justin Thomas,
Dustin Johnson,
Collin Morikawa
- 8:00 AM –
Jordan Spieth,
Patrick Reed,
Ludvig Åberg
- 8:11 AM –
Hideki Matsuyama,
Wyndham Clark,
Tom Kim
- 8:22 AM –
Bryson DeChambeau,
Viktor Hovland,
Gary Woodland
Our projections will continue to update live throughout the day. Stay tuned to
our X
for the latest betting edges, player outlooks, and weekend probabilities as the second major of the year continues.
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