WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, August 9, 2026
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 8/9.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, August 9, 2026—are live with the Aces' NaLyssa Smith projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Smith, Shakira Austin and Kelsey Plum lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities powered by our upgraded WNBA player props model.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (August 9, 2026)
- NaLyssa Smith (Aces): 19.1% probability
- Shakira Austin (Mystics): 15.6% probability
- Kelsey Plum (Mercury): 14.3% probability
- Kahleah Copper (Mercury): 13.4% probability
- Breanna Stewart (Liberty): 13.3% probability
- Kiki Iriafen (Mystics): 13.1% probability
- Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks): 12.7% probability
- Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 12.4% probability
- Dearica Hamby (Sparks): 12.3% probability
- Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): 12.1% probability
- Paige Bueckers (Wings): 12.0% probability
- Olivia Miles (Lynx): 11.9% probability
- Tiffany Hayes (Valkyries): 11.9% probability
- Napheesa Collier (Lynx): 11.7% probability
- Arike Ogunbowale (Wings): 11.3% probability
- Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 10.6% probability
- Jessica Shepard (Wings): 9.9% probability
- Jonquel Jones (Liberty): 9.9% probability
- Kayla McBride (Lynx): 9.5% probability
- Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): 9.5% probability
- Rae Burrell (Sparks): 9.4% probability
- Pauline Astier (Liberty): 9.3% probability
- Courtney Williams (Lynx): 9.0% probability
- Alanna Smith (Wings): 9.0% probability
- Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 8.6% probability
- Sonia Citron (Mystics): 8.6% probability
- Jewell Loyd (Aces): 8.4% probability
- Kaila Charles (Valkyries): 8.2% probability
- Stephanie Talbot (Aces): 8.1% probability
- DeWanna Bonner (Mercury): 8.0% probability
- Natasha Howard (Lynx): 7.9% probability
- Brianna Turner (Aces): 7.8% probability
- Azzi Fudd (Wings): 7.7% probability
- Cotie McMahon (Mystics): 7.1% probability
- Ariel Atkins (Sparks): 7.0% probability
- Kiah Stokes (Valkyries): 6.9% probability
- Dana Evans (Aces): 6.7% probability
- Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics): 5.7% probability
- Rebecca Allen (Liberty): 5.4% probability
- Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 4.8% probability
WNBA first basket picks today (August 9, 2026)
- NaLyssa Smith (Aces): 8.0% edge at +800
- Arike Ogunbowale (Wings): 3.1% edge at +1120
- Alanna Smith (Wings): 3.1% edge at +1600
- Stephanie Talbot (Aces): 2.5% edge at +1700
- Kayla McBride (Lynx): 2.4% edge at +1300
- Courtney Williams (Lynx): 2.3% edge at +1400
- Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 1.9% edge at +850
- Pauline Astier (Liberty): 1.6% edge at +1200
- Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 0.9% edge at +1200
- Ariel Atkins (Sparks): 0.8% edge at +1500
- Rae Burrell (Sparks): 0.4% edge at +1020
- Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 0.1% edge at +850
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 8/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket
For Sunday, August 9, 2026, NaLyssa Smith, Shakira Austin and Kelsey Plum lead our first basket projections, with Smith shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
