Mystics vs. Fire prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [8/23/2026]

The Portland Fire will face the Washington Mystics in WNBA action at Moda Center on Sunday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mystics as the most likely winner in this Mystics vs. Fire prediction.

The Fire, led by Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Bridget Carleton, will face off against the Mystics, who feature Shakira Austin, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mystics vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Mystics and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 71.1% chance of beating the Fire.

According to our model, the Mystics (-4.5) have a 52.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 166.5-point over/under has a 57.8% chance of going over.

Mystics vs. Fire odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mystics -4.5 (-104) / Fire +4.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Mystics -186, Fire +182

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mystics vs. Fire picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mystics -4.5 @ -104 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mystics @ -186 via Novig
• Total: Over 166.5 @ -105 via FanDuel

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 166.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mystics vs. Fire player props

Looking for Washington vs. Portland WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

Shakira Austin is expected to lead the Mystics with 15 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 15 points, 2 rebounds and 6 assists for the Fire.

When evaluating the first basket market, Shakira Austin is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15.6% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mystics prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	15	9	3	1	36
Sonia Citron	15	3	6	1	33
Kiki Iriafen	14	9	2	0	30
M. Onyenwere	9	3	2	1	18
Cotie McMahon	7	5	2	1	19

Fire prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	15	2	6	1	31
Megan Gustafson	13	7	1	2	27
B. Carleton	13	5	2	2	27
Emily Engstler	8	5	2	1	25
H. Winterburn	8	2	3	0	16

Mystics vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Fire and Mystics at Moda Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 71.1% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.