Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [8/16/2026]

WNBA action continues on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET as the Portland Fire square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner in this Fire vs. Mercury prediction.

The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Fire, featuring Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Bridget Carleton.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Fire and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 58.8% chance of beating the Fire.

According to our model, the Fire (+4.5) have a 56.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 53.7% chance of staying under,.

Fire vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fire +4.5 (+106) / Mercury -4.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Fire +186, Mercury -182

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fire vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Fire +4.5 @ +106 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Fire @ +186 via Polymarket
• Total: Under 177.5 @ +104 via Novig

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Fire +4.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fire vs. Mercury player props

WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Portland vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 15 points, 3 rebounds and 9 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fire prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	15	3	9	1	37
Megan Gustafson	13	6	1	1	26
B. Carleton	12	8	2	2	31
Emily Engstler	9	6	2	1	26
H. Winterburn	8	3	3	0	18

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	4	3	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	14	8	8	0	42
DeWanna Bonner	11	7	2	1	27
Noemie Brochant	9	3	2	1	19
Valeriane Ayayi	7	3	1	1	15

Fire vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Mercury and Fire at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 58.8% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.