Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [8/16/2026]
Get Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner in this Fire vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Fire, who feature Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Bridget Carleton.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 73.4% chance of defeating the Fire.
According to our model, the Mercury (-5.5) have a 54.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 50.4% chance of staying under,.
Fire vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Fire +5.5 (-108) / Mercury -5.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Fire +182, Mercury -186
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fire vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Mercury -5.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mercury @ -186 via Novig
- Total: Under 176.5 @ -104 via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fire vs. Mercury player props
WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Sunday's Portland vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 15 points, 3 rebounds and 9 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mercury.
When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14.2% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 35 |
| Megan Gustafson | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| B. Carleton | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 14 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 42 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| Noemie Brochant | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
Fire vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Mercury and Fire at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 73.4% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
