Mercury vs. Fire prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [9/17/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Mercury a 63.0% chance of beating the Fire. According to our model, the Fire (+3.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 172.5 points has a 51.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mercury -3.5 (+104) / Fire +3.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Mercury -133, Fire +135
• Total: Over/Under 172.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mercury -3.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Mercury @ 57¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 172.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday's Mercury vs. Fire matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

Alyssa Thomas is expected to lead the Mercury with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 9 assists, while Emily Engstler is projected to have 16 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists for the Fire.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Emily Engstler as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Alyssa Thomas	16	8	9	0	45
Sami Whitcomb	10	3	3	2	23
Shay Ciezki	10	2	2	1	19
Natasha Mack	10	7	1	0	24
Alexa Held	9	2	2	2	18

Fire player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Emily Engstler	16	6	2	2	36
Frieda Buhner	11	4	1	3	21
Amy Okonkwo	10	3	1	3	20
Jordan Harrison	10	2	6	1	26
Serah Williams	9	6	1	0	22

Game info & tip-off details

Thursday's matchup between the Fire and Mercury at Moda Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 63.0% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.