Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [7/13/2026]

The Minnesota Lynx will square off with the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Target Center on Monday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Lynx game.

The Lynx, with stars like Kayla McBride, Olivia Miles and Courtney Williams, are set to take on the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Lynx an 82.6% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+11.5) have a 57.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 54.1% chance of staying under,.

Mercury vs. Lynx odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Lynx
Spread	+11.5 (-105)	-11.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+525	-525
Total	o169.5 (-110)	u169.5 (+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Lynx picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +11.5	novig-105
Moneyline	Mercury	+525
Total	Under 169.5	+102

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +11.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Lynx player props

Looking for Mercury vs. Lynx WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kayla McBride is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	3	2	2	30
Alyssa Thomas	15	8	10	0	45
Valeriane Ayayi	10	4	2	1	22
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	22
M. Akoa-Makani	6	2	2	1	15

Lynx prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kayla McBride	17	3	3	3	32
Olivia Miles	16	5	5	2	36
C. Williams	16	5	6	1	37
Natasha Howard	14	8	2	0	34
Nia Coffey	7	5	2	1	22

Mercury vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Lynx and Mercury at Target Center is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Date: Monday, July 13, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Target Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with an 82.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.