Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Why New York is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/1/2026]

WNBA action continues on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET as the New York Liberty square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Mercury prediction.

The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty a 68.2% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Liberty (-2.5) have a 58.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 63.3% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Mercury
Spread	-2.5 (-105)	+2.5 (+108)
Moneyline	-136	+138
Total	o177.5 (-105)	u177.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty -2.5	-105
Moneyline	Liberty	-136
Total	Under 177.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Liberty vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 16.7% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	8	3	1	40
Sabrina Ionescu	18	5	5	2	37
Jonquel Jones	12	8	2	2	31
Pauline Astier	10	3	3	1	22
Marine Fauthoux	8	4	2	1	19

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	21	4	2	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	15	8	9	0	45
DeWanna Bonner	10	6	1	1	24
Valeriane Ayayi	9	4	2	1	20
Alexa Held	6	1	2	1	13

Liberty vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Mercury and Liberty at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 68.2% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.