Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Why New York is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/1/2026]
Get New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Saturday.
WNBA action continues on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET as the New York Liberty take on the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Liberty a 67.9% chance of beating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Liberty (-2.5) have a 58.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177 points has a 62.4% chance of staying under,.
Liberty vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Liberty | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (+104) |
| Moneyline | -138 | +135 |
| Total | o177 (-110) | u177 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Liberty vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty -2.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Liberty | -138 |
| Total | Under 177 | -105 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 177 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Liberty vs. Mercury player props
Looking for New York vs. Phoenix WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 40 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 18 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 37 |
| Jonquel Jones | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Pauline Astier | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Marine Fauthoux | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 45 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Alexa Held | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
Liberty vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Mercury and Liberty at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 67.9% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
